Blaze Alexander is one of the D-backs' more valued prospects. The right-handed hitting shortstop and utility infielder was expected to take a major league role sooner rather than later, and raked in Triple-A for the first 11 games of his 2023 season. However, a fractured thumb kept him on the injured list for almost two months.
He produced offensively at a reduced rate for the remainder of 2023, but still finished his Triple-A season with a .292 average and .865 OPS.
Offensively, he's been able to hit with power throughout his minor league career, but has struggled to maintain a consistent pace and be an everyday producer. The end of his 2023 was encouraging, as he reached base at a .457 rate while hitting .321 through the month of September in Reno.
The Projection
Our playing time projection only has Alexander taking 59 plate appearances. In that limited action, he's projected a very modest slash, although he is projected to hit for solid power.
He is projected to put out positive WAR, but his strikeout rate is expected to sit at a concerning 32.3%. While he is only projected to slug .341, his ISO (isolated power) projection of .121 suggests that he will hit with a little pop, despite not being able to collect base hits at a high rate.
His walk rate, and subsequent OBP are both projected below average. However, these numbers could fluctuate depending on the amount of opportunity Alexander receives. As of now, barring a setback from top prospect Jordan Lawlar and any injuries to the infield, Alexander won't have much of a major league role, and will be all but guaranteed to start the year in Triple-A.
Why Alexander might outperform this projection
Alexander has progressed well through the minors. Although hitting a bump with a less-than-impressive stint in High-A Hillsboro, he's been able to produce at every level and show steady improvement.
He's showed above-average speed, excellent arm strength, and an ability to play multiple infield positions. As a hitter, he's boasted an above-.800 OPS at nearly every level, and while his bat can go cold, he does show encouraging consistency in his ability to improve.
If he continues this trajectory, he could easily earn a spot on the major league roster at some point in 2024. While it may not be right away, his bat can develop towards league average at minimum. Batting average itself has never been a consistent issue in the minors, as with his ability to reach base. He's always been able to hit relatively well, and his ability to steadily improve could help him add something to the D-backs' infield in a utility role.
He brings plus speed and a very strong arm defensively, which could boost his value as a defender or as potential major league pinch runner.
Considering his projections are quite low in his limited playing time, he could easily work his way onto the major league roster and produce around league average, which would be an easy surpassing of his modest projections.
Why Alexander might underperform this projection
The main question surrounding Alexander comes from opportunity. As a natural shortstop, there isn't much room for him to contribute on the major league roster. Geraldo Perdomo is the de facto starter, with Kevin Newman as a platoon option and a top prospect in Jordan Lawlar waiting for his moment as well.
In all likelihood, Alexander will have to take on a utility infield role to find a place with the D-backs, but that could also prove difficult.
Since Arizona addressed the third base spot with an everyday starter in Eugenio Suárez, have a defensive third baseman in Emmanuel Rivera next in line, and Jace Peterson to take utility infield duties, there are a lot of obstacles in Alexander's path, even outside the shortstop position.
He'll have to produce at an extremely high level in Triple-A, and even then could have to rely on either injury or severe performance issues by any of the incumbent starters or backups to get sufficient playing time to outperform this projection.
Even if he does, he does have some concerning traits. He sported a 28% strikeout rate in the final stretch of his 2023 season, and although hitting for a solid average, his power went up and down.
While he does have a strong arm, he isn't the strongest defensive player, so he could have difficulty in proving his value. It wouldn't be surprising to see him sit most--if not all--of next season in Reno, giving him too little opportunity to live up to even modest projections.
Summary
At Age 25, the 2024 season might be a turning point for Alexander, but it's going to be a battle. He certainly has an ability to produce well at a minor league level, and has the ability to hit for both contact and power. However, questions about consistency, strikeouts, and a potential maze of infield obstacles might make it hard for the young righty to find his way into the majors without any unforeseen changes to the D-backs' roster.
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