Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery last August and recently told reporters that the date he’s targeting for a return to action this season is Sept. 1. While not unheard of, a 12-month recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery is a rare feat for pitchers, particularly those rehabbing from the procedure for a second time, as Buehler is.
Despite the seemingly long odds, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted yesterday that the possibility remains on the table, with one notable caveat: Buehler’s return to the Dodgers could come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the starting rotation. If Buehler indeed makes his return later this season as a reliever, it would be a notable change of pace for the 28-year-old righty. 106 of Buehler’s 115 appearances in the majors have come as a starter, and he has come out of the bullpen just once since the start of the 2018 campaign.
In those 10 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen so far in his career, Buehler has struggled to an 11.32 ERA. Of course, such a small sample that’s over half a decade old at this point matters far less than Buehler’s more recent work, which has been nothing short of dominant. Since the start of the 2018 campaign, Buehler has posted a phenomenal 2.95 ERA that’s 40% better than the league average by measure of ERA+ with an equally strong 3.22 FIP in 629 innings of work at the front of the Dodgers’ rotation. The highlight of his career to this point came in 2021 when he made an MLB-leading 33 starts while posting a phenomenal 2.47 ERA (171 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP that earned him a top-four finish in Cy Young Award voting.
Whether as a starter or a reliever, a pitcher of Buehler’s caliber would surely be an asset to the Dodgers both down the stretch and as they gear up for a hypothetical playoff run. While the Dodgers have a plethora of viable rotation options, Dustin May, Julio Urias, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot are all currently on the injured list alongside Buehler, and both Noah Syndergaard and Tony Gonsolin have spent time on the shelf previously this season as well. Given the number of options that could be at the club’s disposal and the number of injuries they’ve suffered already this season, it’s near impossible to predict what L.A.’s rotation could look like come September, whether Buehler is ready for a return or not.
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