Alex Cobb will undergo surgery on his left hip labrum on Tuesday, the Giants announced to reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The surgery will also address the impingement issues that ended his 2023 season midway through September. The left-hander will need approximately six months to return to pitching, to say nothing of his readiness for the major leagues. That puts his earliest return at some point in May 2024.
The 36-year-old was a valuable contributor to the Giants’ rotation before his season came to an early end, making 28 starts with a 3.87 ERA. He pitched especially well in the first half, posting a 2.91 ERA through 16 starts and making the first All-Star Game of his 12-year career. Unfortunately, his performance was rather uneven in the second half; he threw a complete game gem on August 29, but he also failed to escape the fifth inning on three separate occasions. Presumably, the nagging issues in his hip were affecting his stuff down the stretch.
Cobb has a $10M team option for next season, with a $2M buyout. Before this latest update, it seemed like a no-brainer the Giants would pick up the option (Pavlovic notes they were indeed planning to do so), and it remains the most likely course of action. If Cobb returns in May and pitches like he has over his first two seasons with San Francisco, a net $8M will be a small price for the Giants to pay.
Still, with Cobb on the shelf, the Giants’ need for starting pitching only intensifies. Logan Webb will be an anchor atop the rotation next season, but the team is lacking trustworthy options behind its ace. Alex Wood is a free agent. Sean Manaea, who pitched to a 4.44 ERA (but a 4.18 xERA and 3.83 SIERA) in 117 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen, can opt out of his contract after the World Series. Meanwhile, Ross Stripling has already said he doesn’t plan to exercise his opt-out clause, but that’s only because he pitched too poorly in 2023 to command a better deal on the open market. In 22 games (11 starts), the veteran righty posted a 5.36 ERA, a 5.58 xERA, and a 4.13 SIERA.
Anthony DeSclafani, 33, is under contract through next season. He made 19 appearances (18 starts) in 2023, pitching to a 4.88 ERA, a 5.16 xERA, and a 4.37 SIERA. On top of his mediocre results, he spent most of the second half on the injured list with a flexor strain, marking his second straight injury-plagued campaign. Barring a setback, he should be ready for spring training next year, but he hardly seems like a reliable option for a mid-rotation role.
The Giants also have some promising young arms, but none have proven themselves ready to play a major role in the big league rotation. Top prospect Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in August, joining the starting staff for the final six weeks of the season. His 4.15 ERA was impressive for a 22-year-old rookie, but his 4.45 SIERA and 4.48 xERA suggest he still has plenty of room for improvement. Meanwhile, 25-year-old Keaton Winn struggled his way through five starts in his rookie season, posting a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings pitched. Tristan Beck could get a shot in the rotation, too, although he had success pitching out of the bullpen in 2023. Finally, prospects like Carson Whisenhunt, Landen Roupp, and Mason Black have yet to make their big league debuts.
Thus, the Giants should be active in the starting pitching market this winter. They have signed numerous starters to eight-figure deals over the past two offseasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to add multiple starters once again.
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