The Giants’ offer to reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge is “believed to be [in the] $360M neighborhood,” reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The number of years on the contract isn’t clear, though recent reports have suggested Judge could push for a nine-year deal. That would put the potential average annual value on San Francisco’s offer in the $40M ballpark, or perhaps in the $36M range if they were comfortable extending the offer to a decade in length to mitigate some of the AAV and luxury tax concerns.
San Francisco has long been seen as the primary threat to sign Judge away from the Yankees, given their increasing urgency to field a winner, the team’s wide-open payroll outlook, and Judge’s fandom of the team as a child growing up in Northern California. Judge has met with both teams in the past week, and outside of some loose connections to the Dodgers, there’s been no concrete reports of other teams involved in the mix.
That hardly means Judge only has two suitors, of course. Coming off a 62-homer, .311/.425/.686 season that netted him his first MVP win, it stands to reason that the majority of teams would at least inquire about the possibility of a deal. However, given the heights to which his market appears to be soaring, most clubs would surely balk at making a competitive offer.
Still, today’s revelation that the Padres offered Trea Turner a $342M deal that would’ve given him the third-largest guarantee in MLB history — only to be rebuffed in favor of the Phillies — has at least served as evidence that another team is willing to spend at the very top end of the free agent market (albeit on a different player). There’s been no firm link between the Padres and Judge just yet, but with San Diego eyeing the corner outfield market and having displayed a willingness to commit to an unprecedented third $300M+ contract, it’s easy enough to speculate that the Friars could emerge as a viable third entrant in the bidding.
Heyman suggests that even with the Giants’ enormous offer, many in the industry still believe the Yankees to be the favorites. The Yankees, for their part, of course, continue to hope that Judge will re-sign and spend his career in the Bronx, although recently extended general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last night that agent Page Odle has not given the Yankees any assurances that they’ll be allowed to match or exceed an offer from another team before Judge accepts (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
The Giants have approximately $133M in salary committed to next year’s books and are a projected $91M shy of the first tier of luxury-tax penalization, so an AAV for Judge in the upper $30Ms or even reaching $40M wouldn’t put them anywhere close to the tax line. Judge did reject the Yankees’ qualifying offer, however, so he’d cost the Giants their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft and also trigger a $500K reduction in their spending capacity on international amateur free agents.
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