The Guardians optioned left-hander Logan Allen to Triple-A and recalled right-hander Michael Kelly in a corresponding move, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. The move seemingly opens up a rotation spot for righty Cal Quantrill, who is currently on the injured list but scheduled to start Friday’s game.
This move highlights the rotation surplus in Cleveland. Allen, 24, was considered by many evaluators to be one of the top 100 prospects in the game coming into this season. He was promoted to the big leagues just over two months ago and has done little to dampen his stock. He has a 3.47 ERA through 62 1/3 innings in 12 starts. He’s struck out 22.9% of opponents, walked 8.7% of them and gotten grounders on 44.3% of balls in play. He might be getting a bit of a boost from a 79.9% strand rate, but his 3.70 FIP and 4.28 SIERA still suggest he’s been solid overall.
Most clubs would love to have that kind of performance. That may not be the production of an ace, but it would make him a serviceable mid-rotation arm in any of the 29 other rotations. The Guardians, however, are spoiled in this department.
They have three more-established arms in Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Quantrill. The latter had a 5.61 ERA before landing on the injured list but has been much better in previous campaigns, with a 3.38 ERA last year and a 2.89 the year before. Bieber and Civale are having solid results, with ERAs of 3.69 and 3.18, respectively. Then the Guards also have two other top 100 prospects they promoted this year: Tanner Bibee has a 3.79 ERA while Gavin Williams is at 2.84 through his first two career starts.
Despite Triston McKenzie being shut down due to a sprain of his UCL, Zach Plesac struggling to the point of being outrighted off the roster and Daniel Espino, yet another top 100 prospect, requiring season-ending shoulder surgery, they still have so much pitching that Allen has been squeezed out. It’s possible this is just a short-term option, with Allen essentially being given an early start on the upcoming All-Star break, but there’s still obviously a logjam here.
Even with all of that starting pitching, however, the club is below .500 at 39-40 thanks to the tepid offense. The team as a whole has hit .248/.313/.375 for a wRC+ of 90, placing the Guardians 24th out of the 30 clubs in terms of overall production, but with the weak American League Central, that record is enough for the Guardians to currently possess the top spot in the division, half a game up on the Twins.
All of that will give the Guardians front office much to think about. With the expanded playoffs and weak Central Divisions, there are very few clubs that make for obvious sellers. Teams that are clearly in the seller lane like the Athletics or Nationals have already sold many of their most appealing players. That creates the possibility for more deals between contenders this year, trading from areas of surplus in order to address areas of need.
There are many contending clubs that could use a rotation upgrade, either due to injury or underperformance, and the Guards would get plenty of interest if they made any of their arms available. They could certainly entertain the idea of moving one of their rookies for some kind of blockbuster, but the more likely path would be moving one of the more experienced arms. The low-budget Cleveland club has operated this way for many years, often trading away players in their arbitration years as they get more expensive and closer to free agency.
Each of Bieber, Civale and Quantrill would fit this bill. Bieber is making $10.01M this year and slated for one more pass through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2024. His strikeout rate and velocity are both down compared to previous years, but he’s still keeping earned runs off the board. Each of Civale and Quantrill has one extra year of control beyond that, slated for the open market after 2025. Civale is making $2.6M this year while Quantrill is earning $5.5M.
Those individuals would garner varying levels of interest based on how highly they are valued by other clubs, but each undoubtedly has value and could potentially land the Guardians some kind of offensive upgrade. Another injury or two before the Aug. 1 deadline would obviously change their calculus, but the ingredients seem to be in place for the Guardians to be a team to watch over the next month.
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