Is Shohei Ohtani worth $500M if he doesn't pitch again?

The word “unicorn” gets tossed around quite a bit these days, but when Shohei Ohtani came on the scene in 2018, this was certainly an apt term for him. 

It had been nearly a century since any player excelled both at the plate and on the mound. While Babe Ruth is usually cited as the best two-way player (if not the best overall player of all time), many think that Ohtani has already surpassed him.

With Ohtani continuing to shine as a pitcher and hitter, speculation ran rampant about how much money he’d be able to get with a new contract. After his performance in the World Baseball Classic in March, his agent must have been giddy with reports that he could earn as much as $1B.

The dream of all those zeroes may have been shattered in late August when it was revealed that Ohtani suffered a torn UCL in his throwing elbow for the second time. Even if he can pitch again — or even wants to — he wouldn’t be able to pitch again until probably 2025, per reports. This was just the latest in a series of injuries he has suffered over the past several years, which begs the question: How much is he worth now?

The short answer is he’s worth whatever a team decides to pay him. 

The longer answer, however, is a little more complicated. While that $1B contract (or thereabouts) may seem justified if he’s hitting every day and pitching every five days, what if he can only hit now? Looking at a recent free agent who scored a huge contract can provide some insight.

Before signing a nine-year, $360M deal to stay with the New York Yankees, Aaron Judge played seven years for the Bombers, topping it off with a ridiculous, and record-setting, 2022. Here is Judge’s yearly average (not including his first season in which he only played 27 games):

Batting average: .282

Home runs: 36

RBI: 81

Here is Ohtani’s average over his first six seasons:

Batting average: .274

Home runs: 29

RBI: 73

In addition to similar numbers, this comparison is fitting for other reasons. Ohtani (29) and Judge (31) are about the same age and in the middle of their primes. Judge also has dealt with several injuries over his career. They’re also the face of their respective franchises and extremely popular players who are always near the top of the list for best-selling jerseys.

Even with so many similarities, however, Ohtani’s contract is expected to be much higher than Judge’s, with the bidding probably starting at around $500M. If he keeps up his great play at the plate, the massive payday may be worth it. 

And if he does one day end up pitching again – and pitching well – that half a billion might end up looking like a bargain.