The Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation has turned into a consistent, well-oiled machine as of late. The staff has constantly pitched late into games, with the occasional exception.
One of the cogs in that machine is Zach Eflin, who is potentially in his last season with the Phillies. His contract is only guaranteed through the end of the 2022 season, with 2023 being a mutual option between the clubs.
This mutual option begs a serious question for the Phillies: has Eflin been performing well enough to deserve a near $10 million raise, and another year in Philadelphia?
Over the course of the 2022 season, Eflin's performances have been a rollercoaster. He began the year struggling after coming off of knee surgery that ended his 2021; he only made it past four innings in two of his first five starts, and posted an ERA of 4.50.
In May, things did not get better, as Eflin pitched to a record of 1-3, with an ERA of 5.79. The highlight of May was Eflin's performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he went seven innings allowing only four hits while fanning 12 batters.
For context, the Dodgers rank amongst the top in team batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, so Eflin's stellar outing made it clear that he is capable of delivering against top teams.
Yet, to take a raw look at his stats as the season is a third of the way done, Eflin has a record of 2-4, a 3.88 ERA, and a FIP of 3.04. For Eflin, this has the makings to be just another season, which may not see the Phillies opt-in for the mutual option.
If Eflin wants Philadelphia to give him a spot in the 2023 rotation, as well as the $10 million raise, he'll have to step it up.
Historically, the second half of the season has never been Eflin's best period of time, as he holds a record of 9-17 in the latter half of the season.
Yet, the Phillies' schedule over the second half could allow Eflin to hopefully have similar starts as he did against Los Angeles.
If he capitalizes on these opportunities then there is no reason why Eflin can't make this season his best one yet.
Three months in, Eflin has an xERA of 2.75, a WOBA of .296, and an XBA of .227. All of these stats are career-bests for Eflin, which may prove pivotal in the negotiations with the front office.
If Eflin keeps these numbers up, it's clear that David Dombrowski and the Phillies front office have found themselves a solid number three pitcher in the rotation for the price of $10 million.
Eflin would certainly be cheaper than the alternatives that will appear in the 2023 free agency market, with players such as Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard all being up for grabs at the end of the season.
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