It has been a strange six months since the end of the 2023 season. During the past month, Jed Hoyer and crew have been lauded for being patient with the Cody Bellinger contract. After Marcus Stroman’s departure, the front office identified a hole in the starting rotation and added Shota Imanaga. The development of young stars such as Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, and even Alexander Canario seems to point to a bright future. But as we sit less than two weeks away from Opening Day, the Cubs are far from a perfect team.
Looking At The Cubs Biggest Weakness
Who is this team?
Baseball Prospectus, in their PECOTA standings, may see the Cubs as just a .500 team, with Chicago not even predicted to win the division. However, a closer look at the lineup and starting rotation reveals a team with few significant weaknesses. The Cubs’ defense, expected to be in the top half of baseball just as they were last year, is a pillar of strength. Their starting rotation, arguably better than last year, is a force to be reckoned with. Bolstered by the addition of Hector Neris and the experience gained by last year’s relievers, the bullpen is set to perform. So, why shouldn’t we have confidence that the Cubs will clinch the division?
Perhaps the reason for this is that, in the view of many experts, the Cubs are just treading water. Yes, the Bellinger signing was huge for the Cubs, but they didn’t make the playoffs last year with him. Imanaga should eat innings and produce even better than the “Stro-show,” but is he that much of an improvement? Maybe the biggest offseason move was the first one. When manager Craig Counsell was stolen from their neighbors to the North, it signaled a new era. However, Counsell cannot hit or pitch or play defense. Therefore, where is the real improvement from last season? What is the biggest weakness as the season quickly approaches?
Where could improvement happen?
One of the criticisms during the 2023 season was the lack of pop in the Cubs lineup. The team did have six players reach the 20-home run mark, but no one produced 100 RBI. Only two Cubs hit for a slugging percentage over .500, but neither did it in 500 at-bats. Having Bellinger in the heart of the lineup will help, but is there anyone to protect him? Christopher Morel would be the perfect four-hole hitter, but will his strikeouts and lack of consistency preclude him from being in the everyday lineup? Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson tried to fill this role last season, but each struck out more than 150 times.
The potential of the current roster is there, given the number of everyday players who did eclipse the 20-home run mark. Can any of these six make the jump to 35 or even 40? It’s tough to envision this scenario. It also doesn’t appear that any more moves will likely be made before Opening Day, so the improvement must come from within rather than via a new signing. With the current starting rotation, a division title should be expected if the Cubs can consistently score five runs per game as they did last season (5.06 runs/game).
Last season, the Cubs finished within the top six in the league in both defensive runs saved (36) and offensive runs per game. Their team ERA was 4.08 and is poised to improve this season. As we head into the season, their most glaring weakness, their power, also presents the greatest opportunity for growth. If strides can be made in this area, it could pave the way for a thrilling run to the postseason.
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