The National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2024 will not be revealed until Tuesday, but a few things are set in stone ahead of next week's announcement.
Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker has been logging every set of votes that has been made public thus far. Out of the 384 estimated ballots, 160 have been posted publicly as of Thursday morning – good for 44.5% of the voting body.
With such a big chunk of ballots already known, some of the results can be anticipated and others can be confirmed.
There are five players who are mathematically incapable of receiving the 75% of votes required to make the Hall of Fame, while also being safe from falling below the 5% required to remain on the ballot for 2025. Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte and Jimmy Rollins all fit that description.
Rodriguez is a three-time MVP who made 14 All-Star Games over the course of his 22-year career with the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. If it weren't for Rodriguez admitting to taking performance-enhancing drugs, his 3,115 hits, 696 home runs, .295 batting average and 117.5 WAR would have made him a first-ballot lock.
Instead, Rodriguez will fail to make the Hall of Fame for the third year in a row. He is currently on 39.8% of the public ballots.
Ramirez, like Rodriguez, was also caught taking steroids, damaging his reputation among voters. The longtime Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox outfielder finished his career with 12 All-Star appearances, 555 home runs, 2,574 hits, a .312 batting average and a 69.3 WAR, but he has just 36.8% of the votes so far.
Abreu has not been tied to steroids, but his numbers are not at the same level as most Hall of Famers. Over the course of his 18 years with the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, Abreu notched 288 home runs, 2,470 hits, a 60.2 WAR and two All-Star appearances while batting .291.
As it stands, the outfielder is on 19.3% of ballots.
Pettitte and his five World Series rings aren't far behind at 15.2%. The Yankees legend ended his career with 256 wins, 2,448 strikeouts, a 3.85 ERA, a 60.2 WAR, three All-Star appearances and five top-six Cy Young finishes.
Rollins also won a World Series with the Phillies in 2008, which stands out as a crowning achievement for one of the most reliable shortstops of the century. Rollins – who won NL MVP in 2007 and made three All-Star Games – racked up 231 home runs, 2,455 hits, a 47.6 WAR and four Gold Gloves in his career and is currently on 14.0% of ballots.
In addition to those five players, Omar Vizquel, David Wright, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, James Shields are also incapable of reaching the 75% threshold in 2024. Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley, meanwhile, are the other players who have avoided falling off the ballot.
Utley needs 99.5% of the remaining votes in order to earn his spot in Cooperstown this summer, so the longtime Phillies second baseman is effectively in the same camp as Rodriguez, Ramirez, Abreu, Pettitte and Rollins.
Beltre appears to be a near-lock to make it this year, while Mauer, Helton and Wagner are also in a solid position. Gary Sheffield and Jones are right on the cusp at the moment.
No one has been eliminated from hanging around on the ballot for 2025 just yet, although Bautista, Colon, Holliday, Martinez, Gonzalez, Phillips, Reyes and Shields appear to be the most likely casualties.
More must-reads: