The Mariners mostly shied away from the free agent market on the heels of their drought-ending playoff berth in 2022. Instead, Seattle turned to trades to add to a lineup that had been a bit top-heavy.
Their two most notable transactions took place within the first few weeks of the offseason: reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko were shipped to Toronto for slugger Teoscar Hernández, while the M’s dealt Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to the Brewers for second baseman Kolten Wong.
Both Hernández and Wong are in their final seasons before free agency. Milwaukee had exercised a $10M club option on Wong before trading him in what amounted to a roughly cash-neutral deal considering they took back Winker’s salary. Seattle took on a decent chunk of 2023 money to accommodate Hernández, who’d earn $14M for his final season of arbitration eligibility (compared to the $1.25M Swanson is making in his first of three arbitration years).
Hernández, in particular, could eventually net the club a compensatory draft choice by rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere next offseason. Yet both trades were primarily about bolstering the lineup in 2023 while avoiding the longer-term downside associated with a multi-year free agent deal.
To this point, neither player has met Seattle’s expectations.
Hernández is sitting on a .215/.260/.396 batting line over 154 plate appearances. That’s nowhere close to the .283/.333/.519 line he’d compiled between 2020-22, when he picked up a pair of Silver Slugger awards and down-ballot MVP finishes. His raw slash stats always seemed likely to dip somewhat with the move from Rogers Centre to T-Mobile Park. This has been a far more significant drop-off than is solely attributable to park factors, though, and Hernández is performing worse on the road than he is in Seattle.
Hernández has popped seven home runs, putting him on a 27-homer pace over 600 plate appearances. He’s still barreling the ball and making hard contact when he puts the ball in play. The middle-of-the-order form he’d shown for years in Toronto still looks to be there. Yet his plate discipline has been rough, resulting in a career-worst 3.2% walk rate and a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage.
Selectivity has never been Hernández’s specialty. He’s always been an aggressive hitter, one who’s willing to trade some walks for power impact. He has pushed that too far to the extreme through his first few weeks in Seattle, though, as he’s chased nearly 40% of pitches outside the strike zone. It’s the 23rd-highest rate among 204 hitters with 100+ plate appearances. Hernández was closer to league average in that regard during his last few seasons in Toronto.
Wong, meanwhile, has been one of the least effective hitters in the majors to this point. He’s yet to connect on a homer in 94 trips to the plate, posting a .195/.287/.220 line overall. He has played well through his first five games in May after carrying a .171/.263/.186 slash through the end of April. The Mariners weren’t counting on Wong to be an impact bat but surely hoped for something approximating the solid .262/.337/.439 showing he put together over two years in Milwaukee.
The lefty-hitting Wong has long been a quality, well-rounded regular. He’s typically hit around a league average level, compensating for fringe power with plus contact skills. At his peak, he’s been a Gold Glove second baseman and a plus baserunner. His typically stellar defensive marks dropped off during his last season with the Brewers, as both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave him subpar grades in 2022.
Wong attributed his defensive drop to playing through leg injuries, offering some hope he’d turn things around after an offseason of rest. The early returns haven’t been promising, however. DRS has pegged Wong as an MLB-worst eight runs below average through 226 2/3 innings of second base work while Statcast has him one run worse than expected. Public defensive metrics can be wildly variable in small samples, but it’s a discouraging start for the 32-year-old’s efforts to recapture his formerly excellent form with the glove.
Without many early contributions from Hernández or Wong, Seattle’s position player group hasn’t been especially good. They’re 22nd in runs scored (157) and 25th in both on-base percentage (.302) and slugging (.372). After accounting for their pitcher-friendly ballpark, they’re 19th in offensive production as measured by wRC+. Their pitching and defense has kept them around average overall — they’re in fourth place in the AL West at 18-19 with a +14 run differential — but they’ll need more out of the lineup to earn a repeat playoff berth in an American League playoff mix that has 10 to 12 teams with realistic aspirations.
There’s certainly time for Seattle’s top offseason acquisitions to get things back on track. The M’s have by no means played themselves out of contention. Whether they make a serious run for a playoff spot could be determined in large part by how quickly Hernández and Wong find their previous levels. With both players headed to the open market six months from now, their free agent outlooks are also to be determined based on their performances this summer.
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