The Marlins and free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez have had recent talks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The slugger has been seeking a two-year deal. Mish notes that the Marlins have planned to keep the DH spot open and rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger and others through that spot. He adds that there doesn’t appear to be a fit between the two parties at the moment, though one would imagine that’s partly due to Martinez’s asking price.
Even if there’s no current fit, the conversations are of note. It shows at least some willingness from Miami to spend further in free agency, and it adds a new entrant to the Martinez mix, should his price drop to a certain point. Presumably, if the price fell to the point where a typically low-spending club like Miami was comfortable, other teams currently not in the mix for Martinez would also show interest.
The 36-year-old Martinez just wrapped up a strong rebound season with the Dodgers, wherein he slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs. Last year’s 7.1% walk rate was Martinez’s lowest since establishing himself as a big league regular, while his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career-high. That could suggest an aging hitter selling out for more power at the expense of his once better-than-average contact skills, but even if that’s the case, the results are hard to argue with. Moving forward, the question is whether that approach is conducive to further success, particularly over a multi-year deal.
Martinez posted off-the-charts batted ball data in 2023. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 17% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. When Martinez did make contact, there was practically no one who did so with more authority. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are the only qualified hitters in baseball with a higher average exit velocity than Martinez’s 2023 mark. Only Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson and Juan Soto hit a higher percentage of their batted balls at 95 mph or more.
In Miami, Martinez would effectively replace Jorge Soler, who opted out of the final year and $13M on his contract and eventually signed a three-year, $42M deal with the Giants. Martinez, in some ways, is an older version of that same skill set: he’s a right fielder whose dwindling defensive prowess makes him best-suited for DH work, and his batted-ball data and production against left-handed pitching are elite, as is the case with Soler. Martinez has more even platoon splits than Soler, but he also struck out far more often last season than Soler.
The Marlins made practically no attempt to re-sign Soler, so it’s surprising to see them checking in with Martinez. Perhaps it’s simply trying to land a bargain upgrade for the lineup late in the year as the asking price on many free agents drops. But the Marlins probably do have enough money left to make a deal for Martinez to work, even if his price hasn’t bottomed out. RosterResource pegs Miami at a projected $101.6M Opening Day payroll — about $8.4M shy of last season’s end-of-year mark.
Even if they’re unwilling to stretch beyond last year’s payroll level — which probably would rule out getting Martinez on a one-year deal — the Fish could offer Martinez a backloaded two-year arrangement. The only contracts on the Marlins’ books in 2025 are Avisail Garcia ($12M) and Sandy Alcantara ($17M). They’ll also owe Garcia a $5M buyout on a 2026 option.
That number will spike, as Miami has a huge arbitration class headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera (with several other role players also mixed in). Even still, there ought to be enough room for the Fish to creatively structure a deal to bring Martinez into the fold — if owner Bruce Sherman green-lights that type of expenditure. Whether he’ll do so remains an open question. Miami sat out free agency for the entire offseason before signing Tim Anderson to a one-year, $5M contract recently. The team has shown little appetite for free agent spending in recent years and has frequently been burned when choosing to do so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).
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