It was recently reported that Yoshinobu Yamamoto would soon be flying to the United States to meet with interested clubs and Jon Morosi of MLB.com relayed Wednesday that the Yankees are expected to meet with him on Monday. It seems like Mets owner Steve Cohen wanted to get a head start on the proceedings, as Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that he flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto last week.
The Mets have long been connected to Yamamoto, even though they are supposedly taking something of a step back in 2024. Under normal circumstances, a top free agent fits best with a win-now club. Since most players reach free agency close to their 30th birthday, a long-term deal will likely see them at their best in the early parts of the contract. But Yamamoto is a special case, as he is only 25. Even if the Mets feel they will have a better shot at competing in 2025 and beyond compared to 2024, Yamamoto will still be able to hopefully offer them many prime years. Their excitement around Yamamoto is apparently strong enough that Cohen took the initiative of meeting with him in Japan.
The rotation in Queens has plenty of question marks and Yamamoto would be a logical target. They currently have Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Luis Severino in three spots, while the back end is less certain. Players like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto are on the roster but each of them is arguably better utilized in a depth role than as part of the Opening Day rotation. David Peterson will miss the first half of the season due to hip surgery. Furthermore, Quintana and Severino are each slated for free agency after 2024, giving the club even less certainty in the long term.
Although signing Yamamoto might be a long play for the Mets, it would still come with significant short-term costs. The club currently has a competitive balance tax figure of $277M, per Roster Resource, well beyond next year’s base threshold of $237M and on the line of the third tier. Since they paid the tax in 2022 and 2023, they are set to be a third-time payor next year. There are escalating tax rates for paying in consecutive years, putting them in line for a 95% tax on spending beyond the third tier and then a 110% rate for spending beyond the fourth and final tier of $297M.
Then there’s also the posting fee that will be due to the Orix Buffaloes, the Nippon Professional Baseball club that posted Yamamoto recently. MLBTR predicted Yamamoto for a contract of nine years and $225M, which would also come with a posting fee of $35.625M. Some recent speculation around Yamamoto’s popularity has suggested the bidding could push closer to $300M, which would also push the posting fee up as well.
The Yankees have also been connected to Yamamoto for quite some time and they have a somewhat similar payroll situation to the Mets, as they are also set to be a third-time payor in 2024. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $246M and their CBT figure at $257M. However, they are reportedly close to acquiring Juan Soto from the Padres, which would quickly change those figures, depending on the final deal. Soto is projected for an arbitration salary of $33M while Michael King, who is reported to be part of the package going the other way, has a projected salary of $2.6M. It’s possible the final deal will change things but it’s possible the Yanks will add about $30M to their books in the swap.
It appears that wouldn’t take them out of the running for Yamamoto, as Andy Martino of SNY reports the club is willing to surpass a $300M payroll next year. That would be a bump from last year, with RR having their 2023 payroll finishing at $273M and their CBT at $294M.
But adding Yamamoto would give a boost to a rotation that got a Cy Young performance from Gerrit Cole but little else. The club will be hoping for bouncebacks from Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes after injury-marred campaigns while King appears to be headed to San Diego. Pitchers like Clarke Schmidt and Randy Vásquez are on the roster but an external addition or additions would be warranted.
The Yankees and Mets have been two of the clubs connected to Yamamoto most often but certainly not the only ones. Given his youth and talent, he is one of the most popular free agents this winter. The Phillies, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have also been rumored to have interest, with some unnamed clubs perhaps in the mix as well. The 25-year-old Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA in his NPB career and is coming off a dominant 1.21 ERA in 2023. It’s unknown how many of those clubs he will meet with in the coming weeks but his posting window is open until January 4.
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