MLB best bets: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for 6/19

Last week was far from a banner week. It started well, but then took a turn. 

Friday, I was feeling good, especially when I saw us lead the market on that Whit Merrifield hits prop which closed at +165 (we got it at over 200). Alas, he could not get that second hit (after getting one in the first inning) but there is some value in those individual prop markets to mine further. 

This is Monday so we are not getting a full slate of action, but there is just one afternoon game. We have nine games to choose from as new series start across the league. The highlight is Arizona vs. Milwaukee, with both clubs leading their division. 

Bet Tracking

Favorite Picks: 16-14 (-14.3 Units)
Underdog Pick: 12-18 (-32 Units)
Prop Pick: 13-17 (-23.5 Units)

Winning Days: 14 of 30 

MLB Picks for Monday, June 19

Favorite
Chicago Cubs -135 (at Pittsburgh Pirates)

I am not a Drew Smyly fan. Nevertheless, he has been effective for the Cubs this season including beating Pittsburgh last week. This play is more about form though. The Pirates are in the midst of another lull, six losses in a row including three against Chicago to start. With an unproven hurler on the mound it and a light lineup even when the team has been playing well it is hard to see them busting out of their funk tonight. 

Underdog
Boston Red Sox +125 (at Minnesota Twins)

I am going with another form play here. Boston has won their last four games and is back over .500 even though they are in last place in the AL East. They have a better record than Minnesota which is in first place in the Central and probably overrated as such. The Twins are getting a little too much respect there. The Big Maple can match Pablo Lopez when it comes to Ks and the Boston line is a little more formidable than what Minnesota is offering right now. 

Prop
Reece Olson Under 4.5 Strikeouts +120

Olson has only made three appearances in the majors (two starts). In his first outing, he struck out six players, and in the other two he had five Ks combined. Taking on KC gives him a real shot at his first MLB win tonight, but I am not expecting any level of dominance. Of course, the Royals strike out more than most but not at an alarming rate. The payoff makes this well worth the risk.