MLB betting: Finding real value in home run leader futures
The home run leader market is fascinating. While there are lots of sluggers who are consistent from year to year when you look at the names of who has actually led the league in homers you see a lot of unfamiliar faces. Guys like catcher Sal Perez (tied in 2021) were in the league for a while and never really showed much power, until they did, and then there are rookies like first baseman Pete Alonso, who led the majors with 53 dingers as a rookie (2019, I doubt he was even on the odds total that season.
Last year, the leader was Atlanta's 1B Matt Olson. I think everyone thought the move to that lineup would be helpful but 54 homers? He had never even hit 40 in a season before.
This season, there are the usual suspects at the top but you can find real value in so many places. Here are some I like.
2024 MLB Home Run Leader Futures
Pete Alonso, New York Mets +700
Alonso has not matched those aforementioned 53 homers, but he has been very consistent in the power department. He has never hit less than 37 homers in a full season (non-COVID) and he is durable, never playing less than 152 games. He does not get a particular bump from his team or stadium, but there is no reason to discount the slugger. His odds are double that of fellow New Yorker Aaron Judge and that is great value.
Juan Soto, New York Yankees +900
I find Soto an interesting case. There is no doubt he is talented, but his career best in homers is just 35, set last season. He is heading to the Bronx and his lefty stroke seems tailor-made to take advantage of the short distance to the seats in right field. On the flip side, switching teams and leagues is never automatic and he walks a lot too. Soto played all 162 games last season for San Diego. Will the Yankees let him do the same? The payoff is too good to ignore. With all of the hype, I thought it would be more like +600.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros, +1200
When it comes to pure power I am not sure anyone has more than Alvarez (yes, some are equal). He is more than just a slugger though. He is simply one of the best hitters in the game and at 27 this season seems primed to have his best season yet. The only negative is that he is trending down in terms of games played per season. If he can nudge that back to the 140 range then he is going to be in this race all season.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers, +7000
Torkelson was the first overall pick in the draft just a few years back. He has power for days and over the second of last season seemed to finally figure a few things out. More than half of his 31 homers came in August and September. He averaged eight homers a month and if you do that for a season you hit 48 of them. Detroit is desperate for his offense so even if you don't like the fact that he is probably tracking an Adam Dunn type of existence, that guy was always in the conversation.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres, +8000
It feels like he has been around forever because he has, but he is just 31. Last year Machado his 30 homers but his games were down. Something has been off in San Diego for the last couple of seasons but the pressure is off a little heading into this season and that might be just what this team needs for players like Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. to get back to elite performance levels. At this price, it a a nice swing to take.
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