MLB futures: A new set of stars ready to emerge in the hit leader market
It seems like every player in the league is just trying to yank the ball out of the ballpark these days. That is what made the now-outlawed shift so successful, right. Whether that is true or not, a look at this hit leader market lets us focus on another batch of very good hitters, including some guys who use their speed as a weapon.
Last year we saw three players smack at least 200 hits and Atlanta OF Ronald Acuna Jr. led the majors with 217 in his MVP season. He is at the top of the odds table heading into this season and a rarity in that he is a decent bet to lead the league in homers too. His former teammate, Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman, also cracked more than 200 hits last season and finished second. Both are pretty good bets to do it again.
Repeat winners in this category have not been uncommon, Philly SS Trea Turner in 2021 and 2020 and then Royals IF/OF Whit Merrifield the two years before that.
Here is a look at the market:
MLB Futures Base Hit Leaders
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays +1100
Bichette has quickly become one of the most consistent hitters in the majors. He has a .299 career average and led the American League in hits in 2021 and 2022. Last season he was ninth in the majors even though he only played 139 games (after back-to-back season with 159). He does not need to explode to capture his first MLB hit title and even if Blue Jays teammate Vlad Guerrero Jr. struggles some again, he is enough of a threat batting behind him.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals +1500
I liked Bobby Witt Jr. as a sleeper MVP candidate in the AL this season. To get there he is going to need to keep growing his game. He is in just his third season and all of his indicators are pointing up. He was a top prospect though so it is not like anyone thinks he has hit his ceiling yet. He has been durable too, playing 150 or more games in both seasons. An overall upgrade to the Royals team can only help too, right?
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers +2200
Mookie Betts has won a batting title, an MVP and has a 216-hit season, but he has never led the majors in hits. Maybe that is why the price is so high. He is going to be hitting at the top of one of the most prolific lineups in the majors and the addition of Shohei Ohtani, likely hitting right behind him, should give him plenty to work with (it's not that Freddie Freeman, his protection last year, is a bum, but it's different). Betts is in his 30s now but can still leg one out on occasion too.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros +2500
Altuve led the majors in hits in 2016 and 2014, both times posting better than 200. Sure he has aged since then, but he hit .311 last season and it is really just a matter of health with him. He sits at the top of a strong lineup with slugger Yordan Alvarez protecting him too. We are getting a player who when healthy is just as prolific as any of the above and at +2500 you are going to find some warts.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks +5000
There are lots of reasons to like Carroll (similar to Witt Jr. above). He has always been a top prospect and looks to be just getting started on an elite career. He is young and durable so there is not much concern there, and he has more than enough speed to get some infield hits too. He is a year behind Witt in terms of experience so maybe some adjustments need to be made. Either way, I would rather have him in my portfolio than not.
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