MLB futures: Aaron Judge's toe might put Yanks in a jam
If you are thinking about placing your bet on the American League MVP before the MLB season has officially started, you may want to take a step back — especially since the current favorite dropped some news about his health this week that could impact his odds.
It's no shock that the current favorite for AL MVP is Aaron Judge, who is listed at 11-2 odds at DraftKings to take home the honors following his 2024 campaign. The New York Yankees slugger is healthy ahead of the new season and there is hope he reach even more milestones this year.
However, Judge said this week that an injury he suffered last season will never truly be behind him and that it is something he will have to manage for the rest of his career.
Here's why his comments should make you think twice about placing your money on him to win AL MVP — and what this could mean for the Yankees, who DK list at 10-1 to win the World Series.
Before any Yankees fans get up in arms, let's start off by affirming that Judge is, indeed, one of the best hitters in the modern game. Heck, that's why he won AL MVP in 2022.
That being said, his comments regarding the toe injury he sustained last season bring his playing availability — and furthermore, his MVP likelihood — into question.
As a refresher, Judge tore a ligament in his toe when he crashed into the wall while making a catch at Dodgers Stadium. He missed 42 games because of the injury and ended up posting his lowest numbers since before the pandemic. Sure, he still ended the season slashing .267/.406/.613 and became the fastest player to hit 250 home runs. But there is no mistaking that being sidelined by the toe injury impacted his season — not to mention made him No. 15 in the MVP voting.
Judge can clearly still rope the ball out of the park. But the likelihood that his injured toe will take him out of the lineup for another extended period makes him a riskier bet for AL MVP than his odds entail.
And then, there's the team Judge plays for.
The Bronx Bombers have plenty of talent on their roster, but there's no denying that Judge's absence in 2023 added to their woes since they went 25-31 without him in the lineup. They ended the season with their worst record since 1992 at 82-80 and they missed the postseason for the first time since 2016.
This is a team with a lot of tools to win a World Series, but it's hard to bet on them making their deepest playoff run since 2009 if they can't withstand one of their stars being injured.
Aaron Judge will, no doubt, have another season of solidifying his name in baseball history books. But when it comes to betting on him to win AL MVP, you may want to hold onto your money for the time being.
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