MLB futures: Can the A's deliver on this bet in 2024?
You don't have to live in the Bay Area to know the Oakland Athletics are coming off of a historically hellacious 2023 campaign. So it may come as a surprise that oddsmakers don't think the A's will be quite as bad this season.
To summarize as quickly as possible, the A's were horrendous in 2023, and not solely because their owner is desperately and unsuccessfully trying to move them out of the 510. They finished with a gag-inducing 50-112 record and a -339 run differential, and, as the San Jose Mercury News pointed out, finished 30th in just about every area both at the plate and on the pitcher's mound.
Even with all of that in mind, DraftKings is favoring this downtrodden team to finish with over 56.5 wins in 2024.
Is this a wise bet for baseball fans, especially on a team that has made being epically bad look extremely easy?
It isn't just DK who thinks the A's can hit the Over this season. Baseball Prospectus is projecting Oakland to end with a 63.9-98.1 record, roughly 64-98. Yes, that is still a losing record that would land them in the American League gutter. (The sewage has overflowed into the dugouts at the Oakland Coliseum more than once, so the standings gutter may feel like home.) That being said, 64 wins would still hit over the 56.5 games posted by DK.
A 64-win season may be the best you can ask from a roster that is constantly in flux and peppered with new prospects. However, some of the young, inexperienced players from last year could bring a needed jolt to the 2024 campaign since they have a 112-loss season under their belts. Second baseman Zack Gelof comes to mind as a player who could help make the team better at the plate after he ended 2023 with a .267/.337/.504. slash line and 14 home runs in 69 games. As is catcher Shea Langeliers, who had 92 hits and 63 RBI last year. These are just two players that could help Oakland hit the Over on their win-loss record if they can build on what they did last season.
Speaking of improved play, it's going to be hard for the A's to win over 57 games in 2024 if their pitching isn't better. (Having 24 different starters in a season will do that to you.) Oakland does already have a bit of a boost from last season since they acquired Alex Wood from the neighboring San Francisco Giants and the left-hander has said he is ready to take on a larger role with the team. The A's have also seen good things in spring training from JP Sears, who was solid for Oakland at the end of last September.
Sure, it's highly unlikely the A's are going to stun anyone and top the AL West. Or finish above .500 this season. That being season, setting the over/under for wins this season at 56.5 isn't terrible for a team that has more experience after winning just 50 games in 2023. Perhaps betting on them to at least eclipse 57 wins in 2024 isn't so impossible after all.
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