MLB futures: Which pitcher will have the most victories?
As we have become more and more analytically inclined in baseball, victories have become marginalized. I have to admit I kind of hate it. Yes, victories are not always a sign of pitching excellence but whoever has the most, it is generally a good thing, for them and their team. You do not get there completely by accident.
Atlanta ace Spencer Strider led the majors in wins last season with 20. These days we only get about one pitcher per season who reaches that magical mark (he is the current favorite). Strider is a strong bet again this year but we have not had a repeat leader in this category since CC Sabathia in 2009-10 and in that first season he shared the lead with four other pitchers.
There are lots of names on the list of past leaders who are far from elite, so really the winner could come from anywhere. Here is a look at some of the names that intrigue me.
MLB Wins Leader Futures
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles +1200
Burnes was on some good Milwaukee teams, but they struggled to support him offensively. Coming to Baltimore, the expectation is that this team is going to win 100 games again and Burnes should definitely not be the one holding them back. Even though he has a Cy Young on the mantle, he has never won more than 12 games in a season. This is the year he gets to at least 18. That might be enough to be at the top of the league this year.
Ty Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers +1600
He already has one start under his belt this season, but didn't get the win. Glasnow has elite stuff and I expect the Dodgers are going to manage him all season in the hopes that he is ready when they need him most in October. That is likely to mean a lot of five-inning outings like we saw in Korea this past week. With a stacked lineup in support, he can easily beat the 10 wins that are currently his career high.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners +1800
Castillo is a veteran pitcher coming off a strong season. There are no strings on him in Seattle at all and the Mariners are going to be leaning on their starter as much as any team in the majors. Barring poor health, I would not be surprised to see Castillo lead the majors in quality starts this season. There are questions about whether the Mariners can support him with enough offense, but I think an increase on his 14 wins from a year ago is reasonable.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks +2000
Gallen had his best season in the majors last year. He struck out more than 200 batters and won 17 games with Arizona. The oddsmakers are saying there might not be much improvement there, which is probably true, but Arizona looks better, and as good as he was maybe he will get a little lucky and push the 20-win plateau. I can see it happening. He has been durable the last couple of seasons and is in his prime.
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers +3000
I think there is a real possibility that nobody makes more starts for the Dodgers than Miller this season. He only threw 124 innings in the Majors last season, but had success and when push comes to shove the Dodgers should be OK with leaning on him. He has the frame and they have so many other pitchers and investments to worry about. It might be a string of five-inning starts, similar to Glasnow above. He won half his starts last season so if he makes 30+ this year he is going to be in good shape.
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