MLB K-props for Monday 4/15: Scary move, but fade Dodgers' Glasnow

We brought out the brooms last Friday for a 3-0 sweep in strikeout props, and we're looking to keep that momentum rolling into the new week. Let's stay hot with another three-pack of K props for Monday's MLB slate. 

Cole Irvin under 4.5 Ks (-125 DraftKings)

Twins vs. Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

It's normally wise to fade the Minnesota Twins in strikeout props, as they rank 28th in MLB in strikeout rate (27.6 percent) and 29th in whiff rate (29.9 percent) this season. For some reason, though, Cole Irvin struggles against one of the most swing-and-miss-prone lineups in baseball. In 61 plate appearances against Irvin, current Twins hitters are batting .321 with a .473 xwOBA and a minuscule 6.6 percent strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant. Irvin hasn't cleared 4.5 strikeouts in either of his two starts this year, and he shouldn't on Monday against a lineup that sees him well. 

Aaron Nola under 6.5 Ks (+115 DraftKings)

Rockies vs. Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

Aaron Nola's strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons, and he's trending toward a career-low mark in 2024. The Philadelphia Phillies starter has the 14th-lowest K rate (14.2 percent) and the 14th-lowest whiff rate (17.1 percent) among qualified pitchers this year. He also ranks 133rd out of 134 pitchers in out of zone swing and miss rate (19.0 percent). The 30-year-old just isn't the same strikeout artist he used to be, and sportsbooks still haven't adjusted. This number is too high, especially with plus money on the under. 

Tyler Glasnow under 8.5 Ks (-108 FanDuel)

Dodgers vs. Nationals, 10:10 p.m. ET

It's scary to go against strikeout machine Tyler Glasnow, but we think this is a good matchup to do it. The Washington Nationals have the fourth-lowest whiff rate (22.5 percent) and the fifth-highest chase contact rate (60.0 percent) in MLB this season. They also have the third-fewest strikeouts against right-handed pitching (71). Glasnow has a 32.2 percent strikeout rate this year, but that number is a bit skewed by his 14 Ks against the Twins. The righty hasn't recorded more than seven strikeouts in any of his other three starts.