Commissioner Rob Manfred addressed a few topics in his chat with reporters Thursday afternoon. His announcement that he wouldn’t seek another term beyond 2029 was the most significant development. Among the other topics: the league’s desire for a free-agency window during the offseason.
“We would prefer to have a free agency signing period, ideally in December, with a deadline,” Manfred said, regarding the league office and the owners (relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Manfred confirmed the league has floated that possibility in conversations with the MLB Players Association, which opposes the idea.
“We actually made proposals to that effect to the MLBPA. They were not warmly received,” Manfred continued (link via ESPN’s David Schoenfield). “With the system we have right now, one of the tactics that’s available to player representatives is to stretch out the negotiation in the belief they’re going to get a better deal. That’s part of the system right now. There’s not a lot we can do about it. Certainly, from an aspirational perspective, we’d rather have two weeks of flurried activity in December, preferably around the winter meetings where (media is) all there to write about it.”
Some agencies, most notably the Boras Corporation, are more comfortable than others in encouraging players to wait deep into the winter to sign. That’s hardly unanimous – high-profile Boras Corp. clients like Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon and Xander Bogaerts have inked huge contracts relatively early in prior offseasons – but it has again been a topic of conversation with Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman all unsigned into the second week of February.
One can debate how much responsibility for slowly developing markets falls on agents, as Manfred implied, versus clubs themselves. Teams can have a similar motivation for waiting to either put an official proposal on the table or move towards a player’s asking price. Clubs could hope that players will feel increased pressure to have a deal in place by the early part of Spring Training and lower their demands. While there’s surely some level of brinkmanship on either side of negotiations that linger for three or four months, there’s no doubt that MLB’s free-agent period plays out more slowly than those of other main sports.
The NFL, NBA and NHL all have salary caps and floors, a key distinguishing feature from MLB. That plays a part in spurring early-offseason activity in those other leagues as teams have fixed budgetary ranges. There’s more variability in team payrolls in MLB, which has the luxury tax to disincentivize spending at the top end. There’s no official salary floor beyond the cost of filling a roster with players on league minimum salaries (although obviously no team pares spending to that extent).
While the sport’s salary structure is a significant factor, there’s no question that some kind of signing deadline – whether an end date for multi-year contracts or any major league signing – would translate to a flurry of activity. The impending lockout and transaction freeze on Dec. 1, 2021, led to a run on free-agent signings.
As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there were 30 multi-year free agent deals agreed upon by December 1 that winter. There were eight such contracts last offseason and only six this past fall. Edwin Díaz and Aaron Nola are the only players to sign nine-figure guarantees before the end of November over the last two offseasons, with both remaining with their previous organizations. There were six deals that exceeded $100M before the lockout in 2021; all six players changed teams.
It’s easy to make the case that’s a more compelling offseason for fans, even if it’d result in minimal activity in January and February. At this point, it’s mostly academic though.
The MLBPA is broadly opposed to what it perceives as restricting players’ options during free agency. The union certainly harbors concern that a deadline would allow teams to hold firm as that date approaches with higher urgency for players to find jobs before a temporary transaction freeze. It stands to reason the league will try to reengage on this issue once talks get under way about the next collective bargaining agreement in 2026, although it’s hard to envision the MLBPA being more receptive to the idea at that point.
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