MLB Playoff picks: Best bets for AL wild-card Game 1s
The calendar has officially flipped to October, which means playoff baseball is finally here. The 2023 MLB postseason begins on Tuesday, Oct. 3 with a four-pack of wild-card matchups, starting with the two American League series in the afternoon.
Let's head to the AL and target a few best bets for Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
3:08 p.m. ET
Rays moneyline (-150 BetMGM)
This is a bit more juice than I'm normally comfortable laying with a moneyline pick, but I think there's still value in Rays -150.
The Rays were the best home team in the AL this season with a 53-28 mark at Tropicana Field, while the Rangers are one of just three teams in the playoffs that recorded a losing record on the road (40-41). In Jordan Montgomery's 11 starts for Texas in the regular season, the Rangers went 4-7 in those games. They went 1-4 in Montgomery's five road starts.
Tampa Bay is bringing some offensive momentum into the postseason, too, as this lineup has the highest batting average (.295) and the third-highest OPS (.824) in MLB over the last 15 days.
Tyler Glasnow over 1.5 walks (-110 DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow has been impressive this season with his 3.53 ERA and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but he's had his issues with walks. The Rays right-hander recorded two or more walks in 12 of his 21 starts this season (57 percent). He's been even worse in the playoffs, as he's gone over 1.5 walks in six of his nine career postseason starts and five of his last six.
The Rangers also led the AL with 599 walks in the regular season. Texas is going to be patient against Glasnow and make him work for every out.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
4:38 p.m. ET
Twins moneyline (-110 BetMGM)
Quiet down over there. I just heard the collective groan coming from everyone reading this pick right now, and I fully understand where it's coming from. Yes, the Twins have lost 18 consecutive playoff games, which is a record for major North American sports, but all streaks have to come to an end at some point, right?
Minnesota enters the postseason as the hottest team in the AL, as the AL Central champs have won seven of their last 10 games. The Twins also have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. They've won eight of their last 11 games in which Pablo Lopez has started, while Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is 0-1 with eight earned runs in two career playoff starts.
The streak ends now!
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 Ks (-115 DK)
Although I like the Twins to win Game 1, I think Gausman will have a solid game in terms of strikeouts. The righty went over 6.5 Ks in nine of his 15 road starts in the regular season, and he struck out eight in his only road start against the Twins this year. He's also gone over this number in each of his two career postseason starts.
Minnesota finished the regular season with the highest strikeout rate in MLB (30.1 percent). As long as Gausman reaches the sixth inning, he should cruise over this number.
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