MLB playoff picks: Best bets for NL wild-card Game 1s
October baseball is finally here, my friends, as the wild-card round of the 2023 MLB playoffs gets started on Tuesday, Oct. 3 with a four-pack of games. The slate will begin with both American League matchups in the afternoon, and you can find my picks for those games here.
As for the National League matchups, let's take a look at Milwaukee Brewers-Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies-Miami Marlins and try to find some winning bets for both Game 1s along the way.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
7:08 pm. ET
Diamondbacks moneyline (+165 Bet365)
Anyone interested in a juicy underdog to kick off the 2023 postseason?
The Diamondbacks went 4-2 against the Brewers in the regular season. In their most recent series, the Brewers lost, 9-1, at home with ace Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes finished that start with eight hits and seven earned runs allowed in five innings. Hopefully, Arizona can replicate that success in Game 1.
The Diamondbacks will be rolling with rookie Brandon Pfaadt on Tuesday night. The 24-year-old hasn't faced the Brewers yet, but I'd argue that's an advantage for Arizona. The D-backs have a good track record against Burnes, while the Brewers will be coming in blind with no experience facing Pfaadt. It's tough to trust a rookie in his first postseason start on the road, but we're getting a generous price to do so.
Christian Walker over 0.5 RBIs (+175 DraftKings)
The Diamondbacks won't have much of a chance in this series unless Christian Walker contributes at the plate. Walker led Arizona in RBIs this season with 103, and no one else on the roster recorded more than 82. The first baseman also finished the regular season on a hot streak, as he drove in 10 runs over his last 10 games played to lead the team.
In 10 career at-bats against Burnes, Walker has three hits and only one strikeout.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
8:08 p.m. ET
Under 7.5 (-108 FanDuel)
Zack Wheeler in the playoffs ... enough said.
Wheeler made six starts in his postseason debut last year, and he gave up just 19 hits over 35.2 innings and finished with an ERA of 2.78. Five of those six games ended with seven or fewer total runs with an average of 5.5 runs per game.
Wheeler also surrendered only six earned runs in 18 innings pitched against the Marlins this season. On the other side, Miami starter Jesus Luzardo should have success against this lefty-heavy Phillies lineup. As long as the Marlins bullpen can hold on in the later innings, this should be a dead under.
Jesus Luzardo over 5.5 Ks (-130 DK)
Fading the Phillies in strikeout props against left-handed pitching has been a gold mine all year. Philadelphia finished the regular season with the highest strikeout rate against lefties in the NL (28.3 percent). Luzardo racked up 14 Ks against the Phillies in 12.1 innings this year, and he has a great track record against this lineup. Just take a look at the stats:
Kyle Schwarber: Five strikeouts in nine at-bats
Bryce Harper: Five strikeouts in nine at-bats
J.T. Realmuto: Five strikeouts in 13 at-bats
Nick Castellanos: Four strikeouts in seven at-bats
This has all the makings of another over.
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