MLB Win Totals: A Deeper Look at the Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have been in no man's land since breaking their epic World Series drought last decade. The core of that winning group just didn't turn out to be the Hall of Famers they expected, and now they are trying to move forward with a different group. Well, it is a different group but it is hard to know just what this team really is. They are spending some money, but are they really going to contend?
Last year they were firmly in the middle of the NL Central. Definitely better than Cincinnati ad Pittsburgh but also definitely not at the level of St. Louis and Milwaukee.
They seem to be in exactly the same spot but let's take a closer look.
Chicago Cubs Win Total
Over 77.5 (-110) / Under 77.5 (-110)
The Cubs have been under this win total in each of the last couple of full seasons. They are definitely one of those swing teams where a little improvement could go a long way, but it is hard to see them taking a big leap or falling way off the just below-average level they have been at. Right now the market feels pretty fair for Chicago, which is why it is not a surprise to see the pricing on those numbers.
Are The Cubs Better or Worse than a year ago?
The everyday lineup looks like it is going to have four new starters this season. The biggest get was SS Dansby Swanson. They did not pay the top of the market for their new shortstop, but I fear he will never have a season like he did last year in Atlanta. The lineup around him is not nearly as good. Outfielder Cody Bellinger is a lottery ticket at this stage. He is still just 27 and has a high ceiling as he could definitely outperform. I also feel like he is a guy who will benefit from the rule changes. I think the Cubs are a little better in the everyday lineup than they were a year ago.
The starting rotation looks mostly the same, which is why it is hard to see this team making a major move this year. Marcus Stroman is the anchor, but I would not qualify him as an ace, and they have added free agent Jameson Taillon. He has never been much better than a third starter and that is the challenge with this group. There is just not much upside with any of their starters. The same goes for the bullpen. There are a lot of mid-career guys who you can rely on, but the upside is limited. This pitching side of the equation feels like it is about the same as a year ago.
The Pick: Under 77.5
The Cubs are losing some games against the Reds and Pirates this season and that makes me a little nervous in terms of them sliding lower in their direction (yes they will get some games against other light opponents too). This one is going to be a sweat either way for most of the year as this team is probably not going to bottom out or win much against the better teams, The key for the Cubbies is going to be how good their opposition is playing when they are playing them. Unless they are getting lucky there is not much upside with this team.
They are a fade for me.
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