MLB Win Totals: A Deeper Look at the Cincinnati Reds
After back-to-back winning seasons, the Reds plummeted last year, as expected. They finished with 100 losses last year, the first time that has happened since 1982. There is some hope that this year's team will be better, but another fourth-place finish looks like the most likely scenario. It is never great when your highest-paid player is an aging/fading star.
The way back to relevance seems to be to lean on a couple of young, emerging starting pitchers. There is nothing wrong with that strategy, but you need some offense, some of the time, if you want to win. Just ask Detroit how that is working so far.
Let's have a look under the hood of this year's Reds team and see if there is some value there.
Cincinnati Reds Win Totals
Over 65.5 (-120) / Under 65.5 (+100)
Are The Reds Better or Worse than a year ago?
This team does not have much going on with their lineup. Per the above, 1B/DH Joey Votto is no longer a legitimate threat, yet he is still in the middle there. The addition of OF Wil Myers and IF Kevin Newman are going to provide more professional at-bats, but not much else. Cincinnati has not really developed an impact bat in a very long time. Second baseman Jonathan India might have been Rookie of the Year a couple of years ago, but prospects like OF Nick Senzel have fizzled. This lineup might be a little better but it is such a low bar compared to last season.
Cincinnati can see some pitching gains this season as they should get more innings from their young stud pitchers, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. That is a definite positive as the two combined for just under 230 innings last season. 300 innings or more seems reasonable this season as they develop though. There are going to be some rough outings, but overall the starting staff is on the way up. The bullpen seems adequate but hardly a shutdown group. The Reds were smart not to overinvest in this part of the team, it just doesn't make sense when they are so far away from contending, there are not going to be a ton of leads to protect. The pitching quality could be slightly better but there are still a lot of innings going to question marks.
The Pick: Under 65.5
Greene and Lodolo are a nice couple of building blocks, but until this team has some more punch it is hard to see them turning that duo into more wins. This number is very fair and you might not have to sweat it down to the wire. There is a very good chance those arms are on innings limits too, so even if they are better than expected we might not be able to get as much out of them. Especially with the team in its current state. It is hard to see the overall ceiling here being very high.
Under is definitely the way to go.
More must-reads: