I grew up in the Midwest, the grandchild of a devoted Chicago Cubs fan. The kind of fan who listened to every game on the radio and scoured the box scores the next day for fodder for conversation. The kind of Cubs fan who resigned himself every year to the old adage that there’s always next year, that is until 2016 when everything changed. By 2016, my grandfather was no longer alive to enjoy the Cubs’ historic win. I had long since become a New York Yankees fan, but Anthony Rizzo and company were the most fun in baseball and I, like many baseball fans, was happily swept along. When the Cubs finally won it all, I cried real tears and celebrated in my grandfather’s honor and in honor of the 100 years of disappointed fans who now were at the pinnacle of happiness. Anthony Rizzo is not only a Yankees fan favorite but a favorite of fans across baseball because of his years as the darling of these 2016 World Champion Cubs and because he is a cancer survivor with a world-class charitable organization, The Anthony Rizzo Family Foundation.
Rizzo was traded to the Yankees in 2021 as part of the Cubs’ dismantling and rebuilding of the by-then lackluster championship roster. Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber were all eligible at the same time to become free agents and that coincided with a slowdown in player development for the Cubs. Thus, the elements aligned for a teardown of the 2021 roster, and Rizzo was dealt to the Yankees. Despite having a down season in 2021 in which he was hitting .248 for the Cubs, he made an immediate impact for the Yankees with his bat and his glove. Rizzo earned a two-year $32 Million contract with the Yankees after the 2021 season. Except for a three-home run day on April 26, 2022, Rizzo’s 2022 campaign was not particularly memorable as he hit .224 with 32 home runs, which tied his career high. It’s the first six weeks of 2023 that Rizzo finds things interesting. In 200 plate appearances before the May 26th collision at first base with San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr., Rizzo slashed .303/.385/.531 with a 916 OPS and a 155 wRC+. He was having a career year offensively. After the collision, he played with undiagnosed concussion symptoms, and his average dipped to .172 with one home run in 46 games. Despite Manager Aaron Boone’s comment that Rizzo was probably healthy enough to have returned to the lineup in 2023, he did not do so.
The 2024 lineup will feature a now healthy Rizzo and, for the first time since he was a Yankee, another lefty bat in newly acquired Alex Verdugo. What can fans expect from Rizzo in 2024? Fangraphs projects a season reminiscent of 2022, not 2023 statistically. Rizzo is 35 years old and before the first half of 2023, had experienced a decline in offensive production since hitting the high point in 2019. Likewise, defensively, his last Gold Glove was awarded in 2020. So while fans are clamoring that Rizzo needs to return to his 2023 offensive output, the odds are pretty high that he will have to fight to get back there. Fangraphs’ projection for 2024 would seem to be about right for his age and his circumstances: .234/.330/.417 with 18 home runs and a 108 wRC+. This very average projection takes into account the decline in production over the past four years and I would bet looks a lot like the 2023 projection which Rizzo exploded to start the season.
In 2024, Rizzo is several years removed from All-Star appearances and Gold Gloves, but he may again surpass projections and surprise fans with an offensive outburst to equal what he did to begin last season. He may, on the other hand, regress to his career numbers and rest on his laurels. I think the latter is unlikely given the infusion of youth, talent, and energy which signing Juan Soto has provided. Rizzo, like the other hitters in the lineup, will be the beneficiary of an Aaron Judge-Juan Soto one-two punch at the top of the lineup setting the table for an offense that will surely be more dynamic, more productive, and more successful in 2024.
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