One incredible stat explains Padres downfall
After reaching the postseason in 2022, hopes were high for the San Diego Padres this season. However, entering the home stretch of the 2023 campaign, the Padres are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture and one incredible stat explains why.
A season ago, the Padres were the best team in the majors in one-run games (30-17), a stark contrast to 2023, where they're a league-worst 6-22.
Unsurprisingly, the Padres' struggles in one-run games have bled into close contests. So far this season, the Padres are 0-11 in extra-inning games. According to Baseball Reference, San Diego is only one loss away from tying the record set by the Montreal Expos (0-12) in 1969.
Coming up small in tight games goes a long way in clarifying why the Padres have fallen so far so quickly, as on both sides of the ball, numbers indicate a much better team.
Three Padres rank in the top 25 in WAR among National League pitchers, including Cy Young candidate Blake Snell (4.6), Joe Musgrave (2.4) and Michael Wacha (2.4), per FanGraphs. Meanwhile, Ha-Seong Kim (4.5), Juan Soto (4.5) and Fernando Tatis (4.3) all rank in the top 25 in WAR among batters league-wide. Only the Atlanta Braves, who own the best record in the majors (95-50), have more, with four.
With a star-studded lineup consisting of Soto, Tatis, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, backed by a pitching staff including Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, many expected bigger things from the Padres this season. However, whether or not the mix of talent isn't right or they've been the victims of bad luck, this season has been one to forget in San Diego.
Heading into play Wednesday, the Padres were 10 games below .500 (68-78) and a full 21 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers (88-56) for first in the NL West. Meanwhile, eight games and three teams separate the Padres from the third and final wild-card spot in the NL, occupied by the Arizona Diamondbacks (76-70).
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