Paul Goldschmidt is the key.
After landing in the NL Central basement with a thud last season, the St. Louis Cardinals made an attempt to shore up their starting pitching and run things back in 2024. While the addition of Sonny Gray was generally praised by most baseball people, the signing of Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson was generally greeted with a collective yawn.
Ironically, Lynn and Gibson have delivered the goods. Lynn is currently carrying an ERA of 3.28, while Gibson weighs in with an ERA of 3.79. Both have been as good as could be expected. Gray has run up a record of 4-1 with a miniscule ERA of 0.89.
And yet, after losing to lowly (I’m contractually obligated to call them that) White Sox on Saturday and Sunday, and the Mets on Monday, the Cardinals are once again in the NL Central basement with a record of 15-20
And things could really get ugly.
The Cardinals Best Position Players Are All over 30
The core of the Cardinals offense, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Goldschmidt are all over 30. Goldy leads the way, at least when it comes to age. Paul is 36. He is currently hitting .203 with an OPS of .579. This comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign which on the heels of a subpar 2023 season.
Arenado is 33 with an OPS of .740, which is okay, until you compare it to his career mark of .868. Even his 2023 OPS of .774 is a steep decline when compared with OPS would be around .950 during his prime.
As for Conterras, he’s “only” 32 and is having a great season with an OPS of .931. That’s quite a bit better than his career number of .815. Don’t look for him to sustain that. As offensive players, catchers tend to age poorly.
The Young Guys Haven’t Come Through
While shortstop Masyn Winn is having a nice year, other guys who were being counted on are not. Jordan Walker was demoted after a miserable start. Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar both have a negative WAR. Obviously, the outfield has been a disaster.
In giving a cursory look at the Cardinals farm system, the consensus seems to be that the Cardinals farm is considered to be in the bottom third of systems. The system seems to have more depth than high end prospects.
What’s the Answer?
Unless the Cardinals spring to life in a hurry, they may need to punt on the 2024 season. With an aging core and limited assets on the farm, a selloff might be in order. Actually, all three free agent pitchers the Cardinals signed, may not make it through the 2024 season.
Will the Cardinals elect to go with a rebuild? It would probably be a tough sell to a fan base conditioned to expecting success.
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