The Phillies are among the teams with interest in free agent right-hander Sonny Gray, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phils have an obvious interest in retaining their own top free agent starter, Aaron Nola, and would become a more aggressive suitor for Gray if Nola ultimately lands elsewhere, per the report. As Morosi further points out, there’s a natural Phillies/Gray connection, as Philadelphia pitching coach Caleb Cotham worked with Gray in Cincinnati and was also a college teammate of Gray at Vanderbilt. Beyond that, while Gray’s relatively brief stint with the Yankees didn’t go well, it’s perhaps worth pointing out that his more successful 2017 output in the Bronx overlapped with current Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s final year as bench coach there.
Gray, who turned 34 yesterday, just wrapped up one of the best seasons of his career, tossing 184 frames of 2.79 ERA ball for the AL Central-winning Twins. Gray added a sharp five innings of shutout ball in the AL Wild Card round, pushing the Twins to a series victory over the Blue Jays, though he faltered against the Astros in the ALDS when he allowed four runs in the first inning of his start there (before recovering, to an extent, to last four innings on the day). He’s already been named an AL Cy Young finalist, although it’s widely expected that he’ll be a runner-up to frontrunner Gerrit Cole for the award.
Minnesota extended a qualifying offer to Gray, though given his track record and a top-three finish in AL Cy Young voting, he’s all but a lock to turn that down in favor of testing the open market. Gray previously and candidly acknowledged that “money is not the ultimate factor for me” in free agency and professed his affinity for pitching in the Twin Cities, but it’d nevertheless be a shock to see him accept that one-year offer when a lucrative multi-year deal awaits him in free agency. Chris Bassitt, who inked a three-year, $63M deal with Toronto after rejecting a qualifying offer at the same age last offseason, represents something of a floor for Gray in free agency.
While some teams balk at signing free agents who’ve rejected qualifying offers — doing so requires forfeitures in the draft and international free agency — the Phillies don’t fall into that camp. Philadelphia owner John Middleton has been willing to accept that burden on a near-annual basis. The Phils have forfeited draft picks and international money to sign each of Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta. And while they technically didn’t forfeit a pick to sign J.T. Realmuto, they’d have received a comp pick had he left the team to sign elsewhere, but the Phils re-upped with him on a five-year pact.
Given that history, there’s little reason to think the Phillies wouldn’t be willing to take a similar approach with Gray. It’s not clear whether they’d wait for Nola to actually commit to another team before pursuing alternatives, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is known for generally acting quickly and rather decisively on the market. If the Phils get the sense that the Nola bidding will extend beyond their comfort zone, it’s at least feasible they could pivot to an alternative plan before he actually signs a contract — be that alternative Gray or one of the many other veteran starters on the market (e.g. Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell).
The Phillies currently have a projected payroll of around $214M, per Roster Resource, which is a ways shy of last year’s $245M mark. Signing Gray, retaining Nola or adding any of the prominent free-agent alternatives would likely thrust the Phils right back into luxury tax territory, but they were willing to cross that bridge in each of the past two seasons.
Whether it’s Nola, Gray or another outside acquisition, the Phillies are all but guaranteed to bring in some rotation help this winter. As it stands, their rotation group consists of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t all that far from MLB readiness, but a team with World Series aspirations will surely seek more certainty than that. Fellow top prospect Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July, removing him as a near-term option. Nick Nelson, Dylan Covey and recent waiver claim Josh Fleming are all depth candidates, but it’s clear that someone more stable will be brought in.
As with any report of this nature, it bears emphasizing that Gray very likely is not the sole alternative to Nola the Phillies will consider. In all likelihood, Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office will engage with the representatives for all top-tier and mid-tier starters, both to gauge expectations and to have contingencies in place if their preferred plans of attack don’t pan out. But Gray does at least have some personal ties to members of the Phillies’ staff, and the team has shown a repeated willingness to spend at high levels to sign qualified free agents in addition to a willingness to incur luxury tax penalties.
All of that context is important in their rotation pursuits. Philadelphia will likely be tied to Montgomery and others as well before too long, and they’ll surely be prominent players through the bulk, if not the entirety, of Nola’s own foray into the open market.
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