Corey Knebel recorded his biggest save of the season on Saturday afternoon in St. Louis. It was his first since losing the Philadelphia Phillies closing job in June.
He entered a 1-0 ballgame in the bottom of the ninth. The heart of the order was due up.
After Knebel walked the leadoff batter, a throwing error by Alec Bohm allowed the tying run to reach third base. The winning run was on first. There were zero outs. Nolan Arenado was at the plate.
According to the average leverage index measurement on FanGraphs, it was the highest-leverage inning Knebel has pitched all year. It was against Philadelphia's closest competitor for the third NL Wild Card spot, too.
It was a big moment and Knebel came through. That isn't something Phillies fans have been able to say about the right-hander for quite some time.
Knebel's last save came on June 10. He was formally removed as the closer role June 15, following a particularly awful appearance against the Marlins the night before. A few days later, his struggles continued, even in a low leverage spot. He allowed two hits, three walks, and two earned runs on June 19 in Washington.
From May 1 to June 19, Knebel posted a 5.50 ERA. He walked 16 batters in 18 innings. He blew four saves in eleven chances.
Since then, something has changed. Without the pressure of being the closer, Knebel has made eight appearances without allowing a run. He has struck out seven and given up just one hit.
He has been still been facing good teams (like the Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres) and good hitters too (such as Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Dansby Swanson, and Jake Cronenworth).
Pitching in lower leverage situations really seems to have helped him find his footing.
A major reason Knebel has done so well lately is that he has not allowed a home run in these past eight appearances. He did not allow a long ball in his first 19 games this season either. He then allowed three home runs in his next nine, from May 29 to June 19. Lately, he has gone back to his old ways.
Whether or not he can continue to keep the ball in yard remains to be seen. Knebel has had a very high fly ball rate lately — more than half of balls put in play against him have been fly balls over his past eight games.
Fly balls often lead to home runs, so if a pitcher has a low home run rate but a high fly ball rate, it can signal that his luck is about to turn.
In Knebel's case, however, it's not so simple. While he has allowed a lot of fly balls, most of them have not been hit very hard. Only 11.1% of balls hit against him in his past eight appearances have been classified as hard hit (via FanGraphs).
Indeed, Knebel has done a much better job of preventing hard contact lately, and it is factoring into his success.
This chart shows his 25-game rolling xwOBA this season, which has steadily been improving since the start of June. It's a very welcome sign, considering that his rolling xwOBA kept getting higher and higher over the first two months of the season.
Over the past few games, it has dipped lower than it was even in early April, when Knebel was pitching quite well.
The past few games make for a small sample size, but Knebel's recent performance has been promising nonetheless. If he can continue to induce weak contact and keep the ball in the yard, he'll be a much more effective relief pitcher going forward.
The Phillies could really use another one of those.
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