Ranking each finalist's chances to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Japanese superstar ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto's free agency is heating up. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that the three-time Sawamura Award winner, Nippon Professional Baseball's equivalent of the Cy Young, is expected to begin listening to offers this week.
Here are the seven teams that Yamamoto is expected to be seriously considering and how likely they all are to actually sign him.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have already made the biggest starting pitcher move (not counting Shohei Ohtani) this offseason by re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. Even though Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is notorious for his high spending, it would still be difficult to see him invest what would likely end up being more than $500 million in just two starting pitchers while the Phils still have significant holes in the bullpen and outfield.
There have also only been two Japanese players to ever play for the Phillies. It may not mean anything, but Yamamoto would probably want to play somewhere that has a more robust history and track record with players coming from NPB.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a lot of things they need to improve, but their rotation is not one of them. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi form one of the best starting groups in the league. Their 2023 starting third baseman Matt Chapman, starting center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, super-utilityman Whit Merrifield and setup man Jordan Hicks are all free agents who have yet to be re-signed.
They need to figure out third base, the outfield and the bullpen before adding to their biggest strength.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
While the Dodgers do have lots of money to spend thanks to Ohtani's infamous contract deferrals, a weak rotation and, most importantly, the best player in the world, Ohtani, may end up actually being detriments to L.A.'s pursuit of Yamamoto.
MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that Yamamoto "wants the big stage."
No matter how good he is in Major League Baseball, he'd still be playing second fiddle to Ohtani, both in the United States and back in Japan, if he signed with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers would love to have Yamamoto and cap off what would be one of the best offseasons of all time. However, all of the other teams on this list give him a bigger opportunity to be one of the faces of their franchises.
4. New York Mets
Referencing Morosi's report again, he says that because Yamamoto's team in Japan, the Orix Buffaloes, were the smaller team in their region compared to the Hanshin Tigers, he's "done with being on the secondary team." Despite the Mets' recent influx of cash thanks to owner Steve Cohen, they may be the most notable intracity "secondary team" in all of sports.
Any of the teams mentioned here is prepared to give Yamamoto potentially the biggest pitcher contract in baseball history. Once the money gets this high, Cohen loses some of his appeal and can't just blow his opponents out of the water.
Despite this, New York is still New York. If the Mets do end up offering the most money, it would be difficult to turn that deal down.
3. Boston Red Sox
"Full throttle." That's how Red Sox ownership described its approach this offseason to improve the team after a disappointing last-place finish in 2023. So far, Boston's only moves of note have been sending outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for an assortment of arms and trading for outfielder Tyler O'Neill from the Cardinals.
Japanese players, especially pitchers, have historically found success with the Red Sox. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa all excelled in Boston and were key contributors on World Series teams, with Uehara even recording the final out in 2013. The Red Sox have a clear starting pitching need, are one of Major League Baseball's signature teams and can pay. Expect Yamamoto to seriously consider Boston's offer.
2. San Francisco Giants
Desperation. The Giants need Yamamoto more than any other team on this list needs him. They've continuously struck out on signing the biggest names in baseball. First Aaron Judge, then Carlos Correa and now Ohtani, it seems like San Francisco is always one of the finalists but is never able to seal the deal.
An open checkbook and the chance to get the the best player available in one of baseball's biggest markets are enough to make the Giants one of the favorites to sign Yamamoto.
1. New York Yankees
At this point it almost seems like fate that Yamamoto will end up in the Bronx. Whether it's general manager Brian Cashman seeing Yamamoto throw a no-hitter in-person on a scouting trip to Japan, the Yankees purposefully saving Yamamoto's favorite uniform number (18, which in Japan is usually worn by a team's ace) or Yamamoto personally requesting a second meeting with the Yankees on his most recent East Coast trip, it's clear that there is mutual interest.
The Yankees are considered by many to be the favorites for Yamamoto, and for good reason. Don't be surprised if he is donning pinstripes going forward.
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