With a 2-0 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves at an even 48-48 for the season. This is the 21st time the Rays have been at the .500 mark this season, an astonishing number. Adding to the amazement of the feat is that the Rays won seven of their last eight series heading into the All-Star break, including the Guardians series, and are still unable to maintain a positive record.
Simply put, the Rays Record is a Reflection of how Middling the Team has Played this Year
The Pitching Is Finally Good
With Taj Bradley and Shane Baz making their returns to the starting pitching staff, the Rays are the strongest they have been all season in that department. Rays’ management was so confident in how Baz would perform that they traded Aaron Civale to the Milwaukee Brewers to clear up a spot in the rotation. The jury is still out on that decision with Baz posting a 0-1 record in two starts so far, but all signs point to a continued progression.
During the 7-1 series stretch spanning these last 24 games, the Rays have held opponents to three runs or less 13 times and posted three shutouts. For comparison, the American League-leading Guardians have given up less than four runs 10 times and recorded only one shutout in the same number of games. The AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles have done it eight and one times, respectively.
By all accounts, Rays pitching is outperforming even the top teams. So, what is keeping the Rays from improving their record?
What’s Run Support?
Over the same 24-game span that saw the pitching staff impress, the Rays’ offense was held to three runs or less 14 times. Unsurprisingly, the team’s record in those games is atrocious at 4-10.
While hitting has been improving over the last few weeks from their exasperating levels earlier in the season, Rays’ batters have continued to struggle in one area more than nearly any other team: batting with runners in scoring position.
The Rays’ batting average with runners on second or third base has been a godawful .223 so far this season. Only the Chicago White Sox, the team with the worst record in baseball, have been worse.
Having the face of the team, Randy Arozarena, buckle under pressure and only hit .173 with runners in scoring position certainly doesn’t help that average. That number is bad enough for the 4th worst amongst qualified batters.
Surprisingly, the Rays rank 21st overall in the average number of runners left on base per game at 14.75. This can probably be attributed to the fact that they also rank 23rd in total number of hits on the season. Can’t leave runners on base or in scoring position if they never get there in the first place, I guess.
This combination of offensive ineptitude has led to the Rays being the 3rd worst team in the league when it comes to scoring runs, doing better than only the White Sox and the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have the worst record in the National League, by the way.
Mediocre Isn’t All Bad
It would be easy to take my description of the Rays as mediocre in a negative way and it is to some extent. But, more than anything the team being mediocre is impressive given the fact that the team has been riddled with injuries and poor batting performances this season. By all rights, the Rays should be farther back than five and a half games for the final wild-card spot at this point in the season.
With the team finally starting to look closer to its full potential form, they are seemingly one offensive surge away from moving up the ranks. As long as the pitching can continue to be anywhere near as good as it has been over the past month, the Rays may even move into the realm of decent or even pretty good and make a potential run at a playoff birth.
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