2023 was a difficult season for the Red Sox as the club suffered a second consecutive fifth-place finish in the AL East with an identical 78-84 record to their disappointing 2022 campaign.
With that being said, first baseman Triston Casas served as a bright spot in the otherwise tough season as he rode a blistering second half to a third-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Before the 2023 season, Casas expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Boston beyond his years of club control, which run through the 2028 season.
At the time, he indicated that there had been no such discussions with Red Sox brass, though he struck a different tone in a scrum with reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) on Sunday.
“Of course we have,” Casas told reporters when asked if the sides have talked extension yet.
Casas went on to add that while he hopes to stay a member of the Red Sox “forever,” “nothing enticing” had been offered to him at this point.
Casas declined to get into specifics when asked what sort of contract he would consider, though he noted his goal is a deal that would leave himself and his family “set for the rest of [his] life.”
As a player with just over one year of service time, any extension for Casas would figure to cover his five remaining seasons of team control while also extending Boston’s window of control beyond that.
One obvious comp for Casas would be first baseman and former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo, who signed a six-year, $40.5M extension with the Cubs early in the 2013 season that covered the 2014-2019 campaigns.
That deal included options and escalators that allowed it to max out at $73M over eight years.
With that being said, there are several reasons to expect Casas to earn significantly more on an extension than Rizzo did. That contract was signed over a decade ago, and while Rizzo was about a year younger at the time of the deal than Casas is now, he had done far less to establish himself as a big-league-caliber bat.
Entering the 2013 season, Rizzo had hit just .245/.324/.402 in 136 games for his career with an exact league average wRC+ of 100.
Meanwhile, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 132 games last year and sports a nearly identical 128 wRC+ for his career.
While Rizzo’s pedigree as a former top-50 prospect in the sport lent credence to his ability to improve as he entered his mid-20s, Casas having proved himself as an above-average offensive player in the majors should allow him to earn significantly more even before considering the nearly 11 years of inflation separating the two deals.
So, what sort of deal could make sense for Casas and the Red Sox? Looking at more recent comparisons, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was another former first-round pick entering his second full season in the majors when he signed an eight-year, $70M extension with Pittsburgh two years ago.
While Hayes’ ability to offer elite defense at the hot corner gives him a considerably higher floor than Casas (who is generally considered to be a fringy defender at first base), Casas offers significantly more offensive ability than Hayes, who owned a roughly league-average slash line of just .280/.340/.432 (106 wRC+) in the big leagues at the time of his extension.
Casas is also a year younger than Hayes was at the time of his extension, meaning he’d hit free agency ahead of his age 29 season if not extended beyond his current club control.
Given Casas’ relative youth and significant offensive talent, an extension in a similar ballpark to Hayes’ extension with the Pirates could make sense despite his lack of defensive value.
While the Red Sox have indicated that they expect payroll to be lower in 2024 than it was last year, an extension for Casas would figure to hardly put a dent in the club’s books for the 2024 season.
Pre-arbitration extensions tend to escalate salaries throughout the deal. A deal locking up Casas could also allow Boston to have a potential franchise cornerstone in place for the long haul as the club’s other young players and prospects, such as Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony, begin to reach and establish themselves at the big league level over the next few years.
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