The Blue Jays made an attempt at extending Matt Chapman before he reached free agency, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports, but Chapman rejected Toronto’s offer. It isn’t known exactly when the Jays made the offer or how much was on the table, though Mitchell indicates that Chapman passed on more than $100M over the span of a four- or five-year contract.
That is notably less than the six-year, $150M deal that MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for Chapman, who ranked seventh on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. With Shohei Ohtani as a DH-only player, Cody Bellinger (ranked #2) and Chapman are the only true position players ranked within the top 11 on MLBTR’s list, amidst a free agent class that is heavy on pitching.
The relative lack of position-player depth on the market is to Chapman’s benefit after something of a shaky season. Chapman generated 3.5 fWAR largely on the strength another outstanding defensive performance, as he earned the fourth Gold Glove of his career. His .240/.330/.424 slash line and 17 homers over 581 plate appearances resulted in an above-average 110 wRC+, though Chapman struggled badly at the plate after winning AL Player Of The Month honors in April, and a finger injury later in the season contributed in part to those struggles.
However, Chapman’s hard-contact numbers were among the best of any player in baseball. This has been a trend throughout much of Chapman’s career, and 2023 also continued his track record of above-average walk rates and a lot of strikeouts. Since Chapman was on a hot streak at the plate in July and early August, agent Scott Boras will surely point to the finger injury as the major culprit for the offensive downturn, arguing that a healthy Chapman will post better numbers going forward….and thus be worthy of a heftier contract.
It is relatively rare to see top-tier free agents like Chapman accept extension offers so close to free agency, and very rare to see a Boras client pass up a chance at testing the open market. Mitchell feels that the Blue Jays might still be candidates to re-sign Chapman, but perhaps only in a situation where Chapman circles back if he can’t find a larger deal, rather than a case of the Jays increasing their offer.
Since Chapman will almost surely reject the one-year, $20.325M qualifying offer, the Blue Jays stand to recoup a draft pick if Chapman signs elsewhere. This compensatory pick would fall between the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 draft, since Toronto surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023. The Jays are looking for multiple position players whether or not Chapman returns, though obviously retaining the third baseman would address one major hole in the lineup.
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