Rockies vs. Padres prediction and odds for Thu., 7/14: Will Blake Snell limit the offense?

Coors Field is usually where baseball bettors find the largest totals of the day, no matter the pitching matchup, given the obvious altitude difference that no other park has. However, the "Coors Field effect" has not significantly impacted the head-to-head meetings between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies this year. Yesterday's 10-6 Rockies victory was the first time the over cashed in the last five games at Coors Field between these teams this season.

Both starting pitchers have an ERA above 4.60 today. Does that mean this game will once again buck the trend of low-scoring matchups between these division rivals?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Thursday's NL West series finale between the Padres and Rockies.

Nationals vs. Braves Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 14, 2022
• Game Time: 3:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

San Diego's Blake Snell (1-5, 4.66) is looking to build off the momentum of his first win of the season in his last start, when he held the Giants to one earned run on three hits over six innings. However, the most impressive part was Snell's "swing and miss" stuff, as he struck out 11 batters, following a season-high 12 strikeouts in his start before that. 

While we are not officially in the second half of the season just yet, Snell's career trajectory suggests he always gets stronger as the season goes on. Snell is 22-29 with a 3.98 ERA in the first half of the season but improves considerably to a 24-10 record with a 2.82 ERA in the second half of the season in his career. Snell's career ERAs in July, August, and September are 3.12, 2.46, and 2.73, respectively, so maybe we are seeing the start of peak second-half Snell a tad early.

We also expect Colorado's Kyle Freeland (4-7, 4.70) to succeed against San Diego's light-hitting lineup against southpaws. Since June 1st, the Padres rank 19th in batting average, 21st in OPS, 21st in wOBA, and 22nd in slugging against left-handed pitching. In addition, current Padres hitters are hitting .246 and slugging .356 in 137 combined plate appearances against Freeland, with a wOBA of .301. 

Freeland has allowed six earned runs over 13 innings against the Padres this season, and if he stays on that pace again, there should not be more than 11 runs scored for the tenth time in his last 11 starts.

Thus, ignore the high ERAs from both starting pitchers, and expect a game that stays under the projected total in this series finale.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Pick

PICK: Padres-Rockies UNDER 11 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

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