The 2024 MLB regular season is less than two months away, and FanGraphs' ZiPS projections are providing some insight on how the campaign could play out.
Seattle Mariners right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo is projected to go 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 3.9 WAR, according to the model. That ERA would be the lowest by any qualified starting pitcher in the league, putting him on track to earn the ERA crown for the first time in his career.
MLB.com's Manny Randhawa wrote a story about the projected leaders in 12 major statistical categories for the 2024 season. Here is his excerpt on Castillo, which includes a deeper explanation of the ERA race entering the season:
The caveat here is that Castillo is the projected ERA leader among qualified starters in 2024. In other words, he has the lowest projected ERA among starters projected to pitch at least 162 innings (to qualify for the ERA title, a pitcher must throw at least one inning per team game during the season). Castillo is projected to pitch 176 innings this year, and though the Rangers' Jacob deGrom, the Rays' Shane McClanahan and free-agent right-hander Brandon Woodruff are all projected to finish the season with a lower ERA, none are projected to hit the qualifying innings threshold. Castillo finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year after posting a 3.34 ERA over 197 innings for Seattle in his third All-Star season.
Castillo has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in six of his seven MLB seasons. He finished eighth in NL Rookie of the Year voting with the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 and made All-Star appearances in 2019, 2022 and 2023.
Just over the past two years, Castillo is 22-15 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.3 WAR. Castillo, who got dealt to the Mariners midway through 2022, finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting last fall.
If Castillo were to win the league's ERA title, he may be able to come even closer to a Cy Young award in 2024.
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