It's hard to recreate a season in which you lead American League rookies in ERA and finish second in the ROY voting. That's what Tanner Bibee will try to do this year as he prepares for his second full season in the majors.
Welcome to Bibee's "Guardians Player Profile" heading into the 2024 season. This compiles projections from both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to give fans an idea of how different models are viewing Cleveland's second baseman for this year.
Tanner Bibee 2024 Projections
| ERA | WHIP | FIP | K/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 Stats |
2.98 |
1.176 |
3.52 |
8.9 |
2024 FanGraphs Zips |
3.81 |
N/A |
4.01 |
8.47 |
2024 Baseball Ref Projections |
3.44 |
1.206 |
N/A |
9.1 |
These projections won't make fans very happy. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference forecast Bibee to take a slight step back when looking at each statistical category. FanGraphs especially sees an increase in HR/9 and ERA.
One possible reason for these predictions is that Bibee ranked toward the middle of the pack in average exit velocity, Whiff%, and hard-hit% last season, per Baseball Savant. He could start to find himself in trouble if hitters start to make more consistent contact off his pitches.
Bibee's rookie season was so special that any improvement would likely put him in the American League Cy Young race. It's also not uncommon to see pitchers in their sophomore season take a step back as hitters get more looks at their pitch mix and release point.
However, we also saw Bibee improve after every start and every month of last season. He's already proven the ability to adapt when needed meaning there's always a chance he can prove all of these predictions wrong.
Regression is always a possibility for a player whether they're heading into their second, fifth, or tenth season. However, Bibee has still proven he'll be one of the top arms in this Guardians rotation in 2024.
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