The Mariners need starting pitching. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto stated as much on his weekly radio hit with 710 Seattle Sports last week. Not only did Dipoto mention adding an arm to the backend of the rotation, but he specifically mentioned adding a top-of-the-rotation arm, and even went so far as to warn fans about how expensive that addition could be.
While it has long been speculated and reported that the likes of Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are available this summer, the Tigers may have ripped the market a new one on Tuesday. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Detroit is "willing to trade" left-handed starter Tarik Skubal this summer.
The Tigers haven't taken the steps this year that they had hoped after signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez to big contracts last winter, but the willingness to trade their 25-year old staff ace is odd nonetheless. What we don't know is whether the Tigers are shopping him or are simply trawling for an overpay in a down pitching market.
It seems the latter makes more sense considering Skubal has four full years of club control after the 2022 season. He's having an All-Star quality year, posting a 3.88 ERA, a 2.93 FIP, a 9.37 K/9, and 2.28 BB/9, which is good for a 2.7 fWAR. The Tigers should be looking to add and begin to compete in 2023, but they do have some depth in their pitching ranks, so they might be willing to flip Skubal for a package that includes young MLB players who fit other positions of need.
One area that should be on the Tigers' radar is in their outfield. Detroit does have one talented outfielder in Riley Greene, but Austin Meadows and Robbie Grossman are approaching free agency and neither carries All-Star upside. The Mariners have several outfield options that may appeal to the Tigers, as well as the prospect capital required to build a complete package to acquire a young, No. 2 starter to their organization.
Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider has tweeted that Jarred Kelenic is the player being asked about the most by teams discussing trades with the Mariners. We do not know if the Mariners are willing to move Kelenic just yet, but it stands to reason they would be open to it. And if teams are asking about Kelenic, it may be fair to assume that the 23-year old former superstar prospect still has plenty of value.
In addition to Kelenic, Seattle also has Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell, but neither would seem to carry the necessary weight in the package. It also seems unlikely that the Mariners could acquire Skubal for Kelenic straight up. Skubal has had plenty of success in the big leagues while Kelenic has primarily struggled. But Kelenic for Skubal does set up an interesting starting point.
The best non-rental arm traded last year was Jose Berríos, who the Twins dealt to the Blue Jays for two, top-50 prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. Even if we consider Kelenic a top-50 prospect in this exercise, we need to find at least one more. Edwin Arroyo, Harry Ford and Noelvi Marte could fill that role, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Even if the Tigers are interested in a Kelenic and Marte package, Skubal has three more years of control than Berríos did. Naturally, it's safe to assume more would be required.
If we assume that Kelenic is of interest to the Tigers, adding another top-100 type prospect might be needed. Emerson Hancock might be of interest, but the Tigers have the young pitching to focus more on young bats like Ford, Arroyo, or Gabriel Gonzalez.
One way the Mariners could lessen the cost of Skubal would be to take on some salary, including that of Báez. But the five-year, $120 million owed to Báez is a tough pill to swallow, particularly since he is a swing-and-miss bat who has no interest in drawing walks. Still, we can't discount the possibility, especially since a rotation of Skubal, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby would allow the Mariners to compete for division titles for the next two to four seasons.
Ultimately, a deal for Skubal likely looks like Noelvi Marte, Jarred Kelenic, Emerson Hancock, Gabriel Gonzalez and possibly an arm like Levi Stoudt as well. Top-notch pitching is extremely expensive and if the Tigers demand Arroyo or Ford instead of Kelenic, Seattle should consider it. Everything needs to be on the table in regards to acquiring Skubal (with the exception of trading Gilbert, Kirby or Julio Rodríguez), including taking a chance on Báez, Rodríguez or Jonathan Schoop's contracts.
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