Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were essentially platoon-proof.
They finished the season ninth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against left-handed pitching and eighth against righties. Southpaws or hard-throwing righties, it didn’t matter. This year, though, I think they have a hole.
In 2023, Brandon Belt was the only qualified Blue Jay with an OPS over .800 against right-handed pitchers, helping lift up the lineup against the strong side of the platoon. With Belt out and RHB Justin Turner in, Toronto’s projected top seven hitters in wRC+ this season are all righties.
Last year, 77% of Toronto’s plate appearances came against right-handed pitchers. If that holds, that means Toronto’s best hitters will be at a platoon disadvantage more than three-quarters of the time in 2024. Sure, guys like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have pretty neutral splits, but the rest of the lineup isn’t immune to the platoon.
If the Blue Jays are going to hit righties next year, they’ll need a lefty bat to break out. There are three (or four) main candidates:
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho is the obvious bet. The Jays entered the 2023 season hoping he could hit in the top five of the order, breaking up their righty-heavy lineup. Instead, Belt became that guy, and Varsho hit .202 against right-handed pitchers.
But, there’s reason to expect a bounce back. Prior to his trade to Toronto, Varsho actually mashed against righties. In 2022, he posted a .240 average, .801 OPS, and 26 of his 27 homers against RHP. For that reason, projection systems are hopeful, slating Varsho with 25 homers and making him Toronto’s only left-handed hitter with a projected wRC+ above league average.
Slightly above average may not be enough to warrant putting Varsho back at cleanup, but it would certainly help break up the batting order.
Cavan Biggio
I’ve talked to Cavan Biggio a couple of times over the last few seasons, and he’s always adamant he’s not a platoon-split guy. Last year, he proved it, posting better numbers in his brief look against lefties.
And when Biggio really got hot down the stretch last year, most of that production was coming against southpaws. In the final two months of 2023, the on-base machine slashed .400/.441/.500 against lefties compared to .221/.374/.317 against righties.
Over his career, Biggio has been a slightly more productive hitter against right-handed pitchers. But, I don’t think he’s got the makings of the lefty breakup batter Toronto seemingly needs in this lineup. He can be a productive walk machine, but he won’t strike fear into a right-handed pitcher.
Dan Vogelbach/Joey Votto
Here’s where the Blue Jays are really making their bet for 2024. Dan Vogelbach and Joey Votto aren’t identical players to Brandon Belt, but the Jays are trying to capture the same magic in this spring training battle.
For their careers, both Vogelbach and Votto have elite numbers against righties — Vog 125 wRC+, Votto 151 wRC+. Even in a down year last year, Vogelbach was 19% better than average against the bulk of the platoon. Votto, though, was 15% below average. If he’s going to make this team, the Canadian slugger will need to prove he can mash righties once again.
Whichever lefty bopper is on the Blue Jays will need to do some heavy lifting against right-handed pitching. The problem here is playing time. Justin Turner played 98 games at DH last year, and it’s hard to see that number going down with the Blue Jays.
Finding regular at-bats against righties for Vogelbach and Votto will be tough with JT in the lineup every day. But, if the Jays struggle against right-handed pitching as I suspect they might, forcing at-bats for whichever lefty bopper is on the squad may become mandatory.
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