On Tuesday afternoon, MLB insider Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the Yankees have shown interest in acquiring Chad Green from the Toronto Blue Jays. Green signed a three-year, $23.25 million deal in 2023 and is set to earn $10.5 million next season.
Yankees Interest in Chad Green: A Risky Proposition
Not only is it in the best interest of the Blue Jays to offload Green, but his underlying metrics suggest that his 1.88 ERA is a complete facade. Reacquiring Green would be a mistake for the Yankees, as they risk strapping more money to their books for a player likely to experience instant regression.
The 33-year-old bullpen arm has been solid this season based on his ERA, tossing 28.2 innings and making 28 appearances with seven saves. However, his strikeouts are at a career-low 7.53 per nine innings, and he’s giving up 1.57 home runs per nine, his highest metric since 2020.
Analyzing Green’s Performance
Looking at his expected metrics, he has an xERA of 4.35 and an xBA of .241. He ranks in the bottom percentiles in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate—all metrics where you want your bullpen arm to excel.
In other words, Green is barely worth a minimum contract, let alone the $10.5 million per year the Yankees would be acquiring in a prospective deal. This would be more of a salary dump for the Blue Jays, who should absorb most of this contract just to move him.
Green’s Pitching Arsenal
Green utilizes a four-seam fastball and slider. His four-seamer is averaging 95.3 mph, down slightly from previous seasons but still around his career averages. His slider is averaging 87.2 mph and is allowing a .273 batting average against opposing hitters and a .515 slugging rate. Essentially, if Green’s fastball regresses even slightly, his 1.88 ERA could skyrocket.
A Cautionary Judgment
It is never a good idea to bet on a solid ERA that has poor underlying metrics. The Yankees would be ill-advised to make a move of this nature and would be better off signing a player off the streets to pitch a few innings rather than giving away any resources for Green.
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