Tuesday's SGP focuses on powerless Cardinals

You know what happens when your two best hitters are unable to play? Your odds of winning decrease significantly. You know who currently has that problem? The St. Louis Cardinals. With NL MVP betting favorite Paul Goldschmidt and All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado out for their two-game series against Toronto due to vaccine requirements, St. Louis is going to have a whole lot tougher of a time winning Tuesday's series opener. Add the fact Toronto scored 40 runs — that's right, 40 runs — in their three-game sweep vs. Boston over the weekend, and all of a sudden the Blue Jays look like a juggernaut, and the Cardinals look like a little helpless insect seconds away from getting eaten by a snake.

SGP: St. Louis vs. Toronto (+115 Odds via DraftKings)

$100 wins $115

Toronto ML

Toronto 5th Inning Runline +0.5 Runs

Toronto First to Three Runs

Toronto was probably going to be favored on Tuesday's moneyline even if Goldschmidt and Arenado were able to play for the Cardinals. But without them, the Blue Jays go to a -200 favorite at the least. Not to mention Toronto has scored at least three runs in six straight games, and all of sudden you've got yourself a really nice parlay. Add Toronto to be at least tied with St. Louis through five innings for the final leg, and now you've got yourself a parlay that more than doubles your money.

Nothing is guaranteed, but Toronto over St. Louis is as good as it gets on the moneyline. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has an ERA over eight this month and the Blue Jays look like a completely different team  since the break. I know Jose Berrios has an ERA over five this season, but he looks like he's finally turned the corner. So far in July, Berrios is 2-0 with a 3.09 ERA and and has allowed less than three runs in each start. 

Betting the fifth inning runline is always a little risky, but with Pallante struggling, the Blue Jays killing it offensively, and the Red Birds down their two best hitters, it's worth it. Pallante might not even make it through five and the Blue Birds have been at least tied through five innings in their last six games.

Betting heavy favorites doesn't always offer a ton of incentive, but it does here in an SGP.