Earlier in the season, we took a look at Ty France's swing with Tanner Stokey of Driveline Baseball. This piece turned into a glowing review of France, who at that point was on pace for the best offensive season by a first baseman in franchise history.
Since June, however, France has fallen off dramatically and it has dwarfed the Mariners' offense. Even after the return of Mitch Haniger, Jesse Winker heating up and marginal upgrades across the roster, the offense continues to struggle. France is right in the middle of the lineup’s slump, so what has gone wrong?
To figure that out, we really don’t need in-depth analysis. The Seattle first baseman hurt his elbow in a collision on June 25, followed by a wrist injury a month later. He recently said the injuries have not affected him and that “I just suck at baseball right now.”
While the 2022 All-Star certainly does not “suck at baseball,” the injuries do seem to have impacted his performance whether he realizes it or not. France hovers around league-average in bat speed and exit velocity, and relies heavily on his ability to make contact consistently and spray the ball around the field even behind in the count.
Any reduction in bat speed due to injury is going to reduce his ability to catch up to pitches he otherwise would. The swing-and-miss seems to have increased, and he has been chasing more than normal.
This has led to more ground balls, fewer hard-hit balls and a reduction in power.
The Mariners need France back in top form, or even close to it if they want to make a run at the first wild-card position in the American League. Their offense is evidently not built to score piles of runs, even when France is as close to 100 percent as possible.
In Thursday’s series opener against the Guardians, France was forced to leave the game with a calf bruise. He pinch-hit in Friday's walk-off victory and struck out on three pitches, then started on Saturday and was promptly ejected arguing balls and strikes with home plate umpire Lance Barrett after going 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
The rough stretch just continues France, and it wouldn't be a stretch to assume his frustrations are starting to impact his play on top of his physical recovery. But if he can get healthy and produce in the middle of the Mariners' order, Seattle can do much more than just snap its 20-year playoff drought this fall.
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