What's up with MLB's top prospect Jackson Holliday?
The Baltimore Orioles announced on Friday afternoon that they'd demoted 20-year-old infielder Jackson Holliday, MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect, down to Triple-A after just 10 games in the big leagues.
Holliday tore through Triple-A to begin the season after putting on a strong showing in spring training, getting on base at a .482 clip with five doubles and two home runs in 10 games. That prompted the Orioles to promote him to Baltimore. Despite his hot start, signs remained that he could come back down to earth.
Facing a mix of fellow prospects and established major leaguers in spring training, Holliday struck out 15 times in 48 plate appearances, managing just three walks to balance out his misses. Upon promotion to Baltimore, his strikeout rate ballooned to a 50 percent clip as he managed just two hits, both infield singles, and posted a batting average of .059.
Jackson Holliday: breaking down the advanced stats
Thirty-six plate big league plate appearances is an admittedly small sample size, but it's still possible to take a look at Holliday's approach at the plate. Per MLB's Baseball Savant, opposing pitchers threw Holliday fastballs 49.3 percent of the time; breaking pitches like curveballs and sliders at a 31.8 percent clip, with off-speed pitches bringing up the rear 18.9 percent of the time.
That distribution is about what you'll see across MLB as a whole: it's not like pitchers were able to confound him with breaking pitches repeatedly, the sort of baptism through fire you'll see for many young prospects facing big league arms for the first time. 10 of his 18 strikeouts came via fastball, seven from breaking pitches and the last from an off-speed offering, a balanced allocation.
Holliday's timing seemed a tad behind, making it hard for him to square up on pitches. Even when he could make contact, his average exit velocity of 87.3 miles per hour would sit around the bottom third of qualified hitters. The lack of exit velocity makes it easier for fielders to run down the balls he did put in play, turning any type of contact into easy outs.
What's the verdict?
On the bright side, Holliday didn't seem to let his struggles at the plate carry over to the rest of his game, avoiding the snowball effect that can come with extended cold spells—a sign of maturity even at his young age. He displayed excellent range, managing three Outs Above Average (OAA) in 87 innings in the field, a rate that put him in the 95th percentile of MLB.
He also displayed solid plate discipline, chasing pitches at a clip that would put him in the middle of the pack. He just had trouble connecting when he did decide to unload on a swing.
Sometimes hitters just need a reset, a chance to work out the kinks in their swing and stance. For a young prospect like Jackson Holliday, spending time in the minors is the best way to do so. He won't have to worry about costing the Orioles wins as he works his way through his slump, removing that outside pressure and devoting his time and energy to getting right at the plate.
Perhaps most importantly, Holliday has plenty of time to figure things out: he still won't be old enough to legally buy a drink until December.
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