Who wins the underachieving AL Central?

Less than 30 games to go and the AL Central is still up for grabs. And it's not because the Guardians, Twins and White Sox have all been really good this season. In fact, it's the exact opposite. As of Friday, Cleveland leads the division at 70-65, but both the White Sox and Twins are just 1.5 games back of the Guardians for first. 

So, who's going to win this division? One thing is certain, it's going to come down to the team who does the best against the other two head-to-head. Cleveland (-130) is still the favorite to win the division despite having lost eight of its last 13 games, followed by Minnesota (+240), and then Chicago (+280).

I said it back in mid-July, and I'm going to say it again here in September, the White Sox are still the best bet here. Why? Well, a couple of reasons. 

First off, they're the hottest team of the three. The White Sox have won seven of their last nine games and have just enough games against the Twins and Guardians to make a late surge. Chicago has struggled this season against Cleveland — 6-9 head-to-head against Cleveland — but only have to play them four more times. Even better news for Chicago is that three of those four games are at home, and Cleveland is down two of their top starting pitchers in Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac. 

And I'm not so sure either will be back anytime soon. Plesac has a broken pinky on his pitching hand and Civale has already been on the Injured twice already this season. Yes, the rosters increased at the first of the month, but replacing two starters isn't easy. That's a huge disadvantage for Cleveland. 

As for the Twins, Chicago faces them six more times, especially the last three to conclude the regular season, could dictate whether or not the White Sox win the division. Chicago may only be 6-7 head-to-head against Minnesota; however, they've won six of the last eight against them. 

Confidence is a huge factor come late in the season, and Chicago has that right now, especially when playing Minnesota. And despite beating the Yankees on Thursday night, the Twins are just 2-6 over their last eight games. Not too good for a team looking to sneak into the postseason.

But the main reason you should take the White Sox over the Twins and Guardians? Because Minnesota and Cleveland still play each other head-to-head eight more times. If the White Sox continue to win series — they've currently won their last three — and the Twins and Guardians continue to alternate wins and losses against each other, Chicago will simply pass them due to accumulating a higher winning percentage. 

No doubt it's a little risky to assume neither Minnesota or Cleveland will dominate the other head-to-head for the remainder of the season, but in the first 11 games against one another, Cleveland has won six, while Minnesota has won five. 

That's a risk you should be willing to take. Neither team is significantly better than the other, and neither are playing all that well as of late. But you know who is? The White Sox. And with odds at +280, it's totally worth betting. 

The Bet: Chicago White Sox to win the AL Central (+280 odds via DraftKings)

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Jared Shlensky joined Yardbarker in June of 2022 and writes about MLB, College Football and the NFL. Jared enjoys keeping up with pro and college football contests based out of Las Vegas, and he is a big fan of parlays, round robins, future bets, prop bets, and most of all, teaser bets. Jared is also a certified Pharmacy Technician and play-by-play broadcaster. Follow Jared on Twitter @JaredShlensky.