Last offseason the Atlanta Braves couldn't give Marcell Ozuna away, but after a comeback season, he now has the value to be moved if it still makes sense.
It's crazy how quickly things can change in baseball.
Ozuna went from being one of the worst contracts in baseball -- to the point where the Braves were exploring moving him for even worse contracts like Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner -- to a player who should have won the Silver Slugger at DH.
In 2021 (-0.1) and 2022 (-0.8), Ozuna was a negative WAR player on the field and even worse off the field.
Many, myself included, came into 2023 wondering just how long the Braves would stick with him before cutting their losses. Those talks intensified as he hit just .091 in April to start the season.
But to Brian Snitker's credit, he saw something in Ozuna during Spring Training and felt confident he was going to turn things around. Of course, players love Snitker because he always believes in them.
However, this feeling was justified as after April, Ozuna slashed .297/.366/.603 with a 156 wRC+ the rest of the way.
All of a sudden the narrative has changed, and instead of looking like one of the worst players in baseball, he's considered one of the best DH hitters in the game.
Should the Braves Still Trade Him?
If the team was so desperate to get rid of him before, would they still be willing to move him now that he's an asset? And even after the great year, how do other teams value him with his rough history off the field?
He'll play next season at 33, make $18 million, is essentially a DH-only, and has a $16 million team option for 2025 with a $1 million buyout.
There can't be too many teams looking for a rental DH at $18 million.
Let's assume there is a team out there desperate for offense that's willing to take on all of Ozuna's contract: what could the Braves get in return?
Again, even coming off the great year, his value isn't likely very high to other teams.
The Braves should likely expect either a back-of-the-rotation starter, veteran reliever, or lottery ticket prospect in return -- especially if the team acquiring Ozuna is picking up the entire contract.
Even if the Braves kicked in some money it's hard to see a return much more than that.
Working on Something Bigger
Another reason for wanting to move Ozuna would be to clear payroll space for another move -- like acquiring a frontline starter.
Moving $18 million certainly would open up space for 2024 a bit -- possibly even allow them to get under the luxury tax if that's the plan.
Trading Ozuna then opens up a big hole in your lineup...however, the Braves might be the only team in baseball who could lose a 40 home run bat and still be fine.
You could then look to fill that hole for less money by bringing back either Joc Pederson or Jorge Soler.
Still, it doesn't make sense to try and fill a hole by creating another one.
You would also hope the Braves are at a point where they don't have to shed money in order to spend.
Worried About the Regression
Ozuna was a terrible hitter for over two years before a switch flipped. Do the Braves believe in that flip, or are they worried about him regressing?
Looking at the expected stats for Ozuna in 2023, they'd lead you to believe the production was legit.
- xBA: .283
- xSLG: .581
- xWOBA: .396
- HardHit%: 49
- Avg Exit Velo: 91.8
- BABIP: .293
The strikeout and walk rates were on par with where they've been previously in his career.
One thing that was really impressive for Ozuna in 2023 was that he didn't disappear in the lineup. The power has generally always been there for Ozuna -- but he had become a boom-or-bust hitter and didn't provide much in between.
This past season though you'd see him cut down on the swing and settle for an easy single the other way.
That's pretty evident by the fact his opposite field percentage was at 28.1 percent in 2023 -- the highest of his career since 2015. The previous two seasons with the Braves, it was 23.2 and 21 percent respectively.
So even when the power wasn't there, Ozuna was still doing things at the plate to contribute in 2023, which was the biggest complaint for Ozuna the previous two years.
All that points to the fact the bounce back for Ozuna was real and he could repeat it again.
The only real reason to trade Ozuna now is if the Braves need to free up some money for another move. Ozuna's trade value isn't high enough to net you much in return, and the production in 2023 doesn't seem like a fluke based on the metrics.
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