Why the Padres could struggle to stay out of the NL West basement

In 2023, San Diego finished third in the NL West and failed to make the postseason despite the third-highest payroll in the Majors. Outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, San Diego's Opening Day payroll has gone up every year since 2017, peaking at $240 million for the past campaign.

The franchise's streak of rising payrolls will end this season, as the team has dealt high-paid talent or allowed prominent free agents to sign with other teams, bringing the spending below San Diego's threshold of $200 million. But this shift in financial thinking begs the question: Can these Padres approach last season's disappointing record (82-80) minus the talent that has departed?

There has long been debate on whether the Padres should continue their big-spending ways.

In 2021, after San Diego signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to an extension, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal offered a word of caution.

"Fans in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and some larger major-league cities would love their clubs to operate as aggressively the Padres, who are locking up their 22-year-old superstar rather than starting their countdown to trading him," Rosenthal wrote. "And yet, there’s a danger here, and it can’t be dismissed, even in the giddy elation of Fernando Tatis Jr.s 14-year, $340 million extension." 

The Padres followed that extension up, of course, by signing Jake Cronenworth (seven years $80M), Manny Machado (11 years, $350M), Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280M), Yu Darvish (six years, $108M) and Joe Musgrove (five years, $100M) to big-money deals.

San Diego has already moved on from star Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, trading them to the New York Yankees this winter. Starting pitchers Michael Wacha (Royals), Seth Lugo (Royals) and reliever Josh Hader (Houston Astros) have already found new teams as free agents. Starter Blake Snell, one of the top free agents on the market, is unlikely to re-sign with the Padres. 

In 2023 alone those players accounted for a cumulative 20.1 WAR, two All-Star appearances (Soto and Hader), one Silver Slugger (Soto) and a Cy Young (Snell). That leaves GM A.J. Preller with the unenviable task of replacing all that production.

So far this offseason, however, San Diego's has made only two major signings – Korean relief pitcher Woo Suk Go and Japanese reliever Yuki Matsui, neither of whom have proven success at the MLB level. The only proven MLB talent they received in the Soto trade was Michael King, who posted a 2.75 ERA in 104.2 innings last season.

For now, Pedro Avila and Randy Vasquez are projected as the club's fourth and fifth starting pitchers. Avila (3.22 ERA in 50.1 innings) and Vazquez (2.87 ERA in 37.2 innings) are unproven players with a combined service time of just 140 days.

In the outfield, there are only two players on the 40-man roster (Tatis Jr. and Joze Azocar). Fan Graphs predicts non-roster invitee Cal Mitchell to be the Opening Day left fielder with Azocar in center and Tatis in right. Mitchell has only 100 days' service time in the big leagues.

The team's current payroll sits at $140 million, meaning San Diego still has money to spend below its $200 million threshold. The Padres won't bring in top-tier talent, but they still can upgrade the roster. But in a division that includes powerhouses in the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks – last year's World Series runner-up – will that be enough to keep the Padres out of the basement?