Why there's reason for optimism regarding former No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson

Last season was a disaster for the Detroit Tigers and former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who posted a slash line of .203/.285/.319. The Tigers even demoted him to Triple-A for a time, leading to concern about whether he could cut it in the big leagues.

Concern about Torkelson, who received an $8.4 million signing bonus in 2020, grew when he got off to a slow start in spring training. His .250 batting average so far isn't confirmation of big-league skill.

But other signs point to Torkelson having a bounce-back year.

In spring training games, he has had nine balls with exit velocities of 101 mph, according to The Athletic. Six were outs, but that could just be bad luck. Hard-hit balls often fly out of the park for HRs or drop for other hits. 

In 2022, Torkelson ranked in the 79^th percentile for average exit velocity and max exit velocity, but that still resulted in a batting average just over .200, another indication of poor luck.

Torkelson sported a .255 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in 2022, a below average number that supports the theory that he was the victim of bad luck throughout the season.

Another encouraging spring training sign is that Torkelson isn't chasing pitches. He commands the zone and seems to be swinging only at strikes. 

In 2022, Torkelson finished above the 60^th percentile in walk rate. He has continued that trend this spring with a .344 OBP.