Why Yordan Alvarez will push the 60-HR mark this season
Yordan Alvarez set an Astros record when he launched a homer against the Detroit Tigers this week, becoming the fastest Houston player to get to 100 career homers.
Alvarez has become one the premier power hitters in the league and is just entering his prime in his age 26 season. He set a career-high last year with 37 homers along with a 1.019 OPS. This year, in four games, he’s already launched two homers and has a 1.186 OPS.
His advanced stats also show him tapping into more of his power. His barrel percentage has risen from 21% to 25% this year. The outfielder is making more solid contact. Alvarez ranked second in MLB last year with an average exit velocity of 95.2 mph.
He has also seen his sweet spot percentage increase from 40.7% to 50% this year.
The thought of Alvarez getting more pitches on the sweet spot is scary.
“And boy, he has lightning in his bat. Every time he swings, you know he could do something. And there aren’t many players around of that magnitude,” manager Dusty Baker said, per MLB.com. “He's certainly one of the best.”
Alvarez also benefits from playing in a deep Houston lineup that will offer plenty of protection should teams consider pitching around him. Other players can make pitchers pay, so that will limit the number of times teams can just give Alvarez first base.
There is also the benefit of playing in Minute Maid Park, which usually sees balls fly out of the park.
So far this year, Alvarez is striking out at a higher rate and walking far less than his career norms. Those are both likely to change as the sample size grows. When he cuts down on the strikeouts, more contact will likely mean more home runs.
All of this makes one wonder just how many home runs Alvarez can hit this year.
He likely can’t keep up an 81-homer pace, but there is plenty of reason to think he will continue a 60-homer pace. He is in his prime, getting better with his eyes and already among the top power hitters in the game. It should be a fun summer in Houston watching their outfielder hit bombs.
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