It was reported over the weekend that the Yankees are still interested in free-agent left-hander Blake Snell. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays today that the club currently has an offer out to the lefty, though adds that the Angels and Giants are still possibilities.
Despite that offer, Andy Martino of SNY threw some cold water on the proceedings, suggesting there’s not much momentum to getting a deal done at the moment.
There’s also a report today from Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner at The Athletic indicating that the club has made an offer to the southpaw with no opt-outs. It’s clear in the article that the offer in question was made to Snell prior to the club signing Marcus Stroman. The Yankees reportedly offered Snell $150M over six years back in January, but the lefty was looking for either a longer deal or one with an average annual value of $30M or more.
MLBTR predicted Snell for a seven-year, $200M deal at the start of the offseason, but his lingering on the market for months has led to some speculation he would consider a short-term deal, a possibility MLBTR recently explored.
The details of this current offer from the Yankees aren’t known, but it seems unlikely it’s of the short-term, high AAV type. The report from Kuty and Kirschner highlights that the club may not be in the best position to take the high AAV route because of their competitive balance tax status. Per Roster Resource, the club’s CBT number is $307M, already beyond the fourth and final tier of $297M. As a third-time payor at that level, any further spending comes with a 110 percent tax.
This would make it difficult for the club to get creative with Snell. Per the example used by Kuty and Kirschner, giving Snell a $40M salary on a short-term deal would also come with $44M in taxes, meaning the club would effectively be paying $84M to get him on the roster this year.
This highlights the tricky position Snell is in at the moment. He is obviously incredibly talented, having just won a Cy Young last year after posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres. That makes him very attractive but clubs may not want to commit to him for a long tenure given his inconsistency. From 2019 to 2022, in between Cy Young wins, he had a 3.85 ERA and never got to 130 innings pitched in any of those campaigns. As good as he was last year, he had to pitch around a 13.3 percent walk rate and got help from a .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7 percent strand rate.
That lack of reliability could push some clubs to prefer a short-term deal but many contenders are over the CBT and face significant taxes, such as the Yankees, while others have budgetary limitations due to the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group and uncertainty around TV revenue. The January offer from the Yanks came with an AAV of $25M and perhaps their new offer adds an extra year or a little bit more money. With Martino suggesting nothing is close to getting done, perhaps it’s not significantly different from last month’s offer.
Even if there are some clubs with a bit of powder dry at this late stage of the winter, there are still lots of free agents out there, with Boras representing all of the top names. In addition to Snell, he’s also looking to get deals done for Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Hyun Jin Ryu and more. Finding significant deals for all of those guys will be an interesting juggling act for Boras, as getting a deal done for one guy might have the domino effect of closing off the earning potential of another.
The Yankees have an on-paper rotation that is strong with Gerrit Cole backed up by Carlos Rodón, Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a great group if everyone is healthy but each of Rodón, Stroman and Cortes missed significant time last year. The club also subtracted depth by including four starting pitchers in the Juan Soto trade. Signing Snell or some other starter could bump Schmidt down to sixth on the chart and into the minors, as he still has an option remaining.
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