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Breaking down baseball's crowded MVP scene
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Breaking down baseball's crowded MVP scene

With the final month of the MLB season underway, the race for MVP honors in both the National and American Leagues is as heated as some of the divisional races. More so than in many recent years, the decision about who ultimately takes home the hardware could come down to how one defines "value."

Is it who is having the most impressive year in the box score? Or is it who has made the biggest difference in the pennant chase? Is it who does the most across the board, or instead a perennial-type who has hung around and finally gets his time to shine?
The three weeks left in the regular season is plenty of time to shake up the MVP situation even more. Here is a look at the current front-runners and what gives them a legitimate shot at the throne.

National League 

Nolan Arenado — Colorado Rockies Arenado has been a mainstay in the recent NL MVP races, improving his finish within the top eight each of the last three years. 2018 may be his best year to date, as his performance has helped the Rockies weather the storm of an underwhelming start to stay firmly in the NL postseason picture as both a division championship contender and wild card candidate.

The Rockies winning the NL West title would go a long way toward helping his MVP chances. Arenado is hitting .324 when the Rocks are victorious this year. The stigma of the advantages of playing all home games at Coors Field is hard to shake off. Although his power and RBI splits are nearly identical at home and on the road, his average at Coors Field is nearly 100 points higher.

Javy Baez — Chicago Cubs A do-it all bundle of excitement for the Cubs, Baez has taken his game to a new level this year. His breakout effort has seen him reach career-bests across the board, including 30 home runs, 21 stolen bases, driving in 100 runs and topping the NL in slugging percentage. Add in his flair for the dramatic with the glove, and he has been a godsend for the Cubs and the most consistent gear in their machine.

Baez’s campaign has been a sneaky one, but he will benefit from being the best player on the NL’s best team. He could become the first Cub second baseman to reach 40 home runs since Ryne Sandberg in 1990.

Matt Carpenter — St. Louis Cardinals Carpenter’s second half has been a miraculous one. In mid-May, he was hitting just .140. But since the Midsummer Classic, Carpenter has gone into overdrive and carried the Cardinals with him. His 16 second-half home runs have given him an NL-best 35 and contributed to a league-high .956 OPS. Carpenter’s resurgence has aligned with the Cardinals becoming the league’s hottest team, rallying from scraping around .500 to pulling to the top of the NL Wild Card race.

Freddie Freeman — Atlanta Braves Freeman has been the centerpiece of the Braves' breakout campaign, and as such is rightfully deserving of the acclaim that such a season brings. Freeman has been the most consistent bat in the league this year and is the working man’s candidate for the award. His numbers do not showcase the same eye-popping stats of the other contenders, but Freeman is consistently on base and defensively he brings the top first base glove to the NL.

A slow second half has hurt him in a race that he was a favorite for at the midway point. But Freeman still cannot be counted out, especially if his power numbers pick back up down the stretch. Plus, the bonus of completing the once-improbable journey for the Braves will get him deserved bonus points.

Paul Goldschmidt — Arizona Diamondbacks The singular impact of Goldschmidt on the Diamondbacks' season is without dispute. Initially, Arizona found a way to thrive in the early going even as Goldy got off to an uncharacteristically slow start. The D’Backs limped through May, going 8-19 for the month; however, Goldschmidt sprung to life in June, hitting .364 with 10 home runs — and he never looked back. His efforts revived the season for Arizona, which now has an NL West championship within reach.

Over the past five years, the MVP has been the sun to Goldy’s Icarus. Since 2013, he has finished within the top three of voting three different seasons but is still yet to win. With a strong September, perhaps he can finally get over the hump this year.

Don’t forget about: Christian Yelich — Milwaukee Brewers Yelich has come on like a shooting star of late, closing in on his sizeable full potential. He sits within the NL top five in batting average (.315), runs scored (96) and OPS (.934). In the last week alone, Yelich has both a grand slam and a six-hit performance at the plate. On pace to top 30 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 30 doubles and 100 RBI, Yelich is an under-the-radar candidate to mix things up if his late ascension continues.


Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Mookie Betts — Boston Red Sox Many still may not understand how to calculate WAR (count me among those), but Betts is putting on a definitive clinic on what it looks like in real-time. He is having one of the most dominant seasons by a leadoff hitter in baseball history, accounting for an 8.6 WAR with most of the final month still ahead. He leads all of baseball in batting average (.336) and OPS (1.053), and he ranks among the best in stolen bases, doubles and runs scored. And if what he does at the plate and on the bases isn’t enough, he also has contributed from right field to two defensive wins.

Having a flair for the big moment doesn’t hurt one’s candidacy either, and Betts certainly has not been absent when the stakes have been high. His .360 average during Boston victories is nice, as is his over .400 mark with runners in scoring position and two outs. But his pair of three home run games and pair of grand slams are signature moments on his season.

Matt Chapman — Oakland Athletics While Chapman’s offensive slate does not stand up to that of his fellow MVP peers, what he does with the glove is unparalleled. After providing a taste of what he could provide at the hot corner defensively last year, the 25-year-old has gone into overdrive with the leather this year, providing an eye-popping 26 defensive runs saved and a defensive WAR over three. He is lapping all other infielders in the majors and is an irreplaceable part of the motor that is driving the Athletics.

J.D. Martinez — Boston Red Sox Martinez’s prime competition for MVP honors just happens to be his aforementioned teammate, but what he has done for the Red Sox lineup is nothing short of transformational. Before bringing Martinez aboard over the winter, the Red Sox were the AL’s least potent team at the plate, finishing at the bottom of the AL in home runs in 2017 and 11th in OPS. With Martinez mounting a Triple Crown-worthy campaign, they now top the league in OPS and are fourth in home runs.

Jose Ramirez — Cleveland Indians If there is a stat worth counting, you will find Ramirez's name on its list. He places among the league’s top four in home runs (37), RBI (96), runs scored (95), stolen bases (29), walks (93), slugging percentage (.590) and OPS (.992). Ramirez has continued to become an increasingly potent threat at the plate year after year and has kept the Indians afloat during an underwhelming start. He has already eclipsed his performance of a year ago when he finished third in MVP voting.

Mike Trout — Anaheim Angels For the second year in a row, an ill-timed injury interrupted the best year of Trout’s career, as he has continued to raise the bar even for himself. But in just 120 games, his stat line looks as if he didn’t miss a day. Trout leads the AL with a .456 on-base percentage, 1.061 OPS and 109 walks. His OPS+ also sits at an AL-best 189, with 31 home runs and 88 runs scored mixed in as well. The fact that he has to drag the Angels around his ankle for yet another season fails to dim his light and speaks volumes about how great he really is.

Don’t forget about: Francisco Lindor — Cleveland Indians
While Ramirez is the hammer for the Indians, Lindor remains the brightest star for the Tribe. Earlier in the week when he connected for his 30th home run of the year, Lindor became the first shortstop since Nomar Garciaparra to have a 40 double/30 homer/20 stolen base campaign. Meanwhile, his 2.4 dWAR is only a shade behind Andrelton Simmons’ 2.9 for best in the majors among shortstops.

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