Aug 22, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images John Jones-Imagn Images

Cleveland Guardians Given Discouraging 2025 Playoff, Division Prediction

Originally posted on Cleveland Guardians on SI
By Tommy Wild | Last updated Feb 5, 2025 4:00 PM ET

The Cleveland Guardians shocked baseball in 2024, easily winning 92 games and the American League Central during their march to the ALCS.

However, one popular prediction system isn't as high on the Guardians heading into the 2025 season.

FanGraphs released its 2025 projection for this season. It believes the Guardians will win just 77 games with a -35 run differential.

This record would make Cleveland the second-worst team in the division, and it only gives them a 19.0 percent chance of returning to the postseason next year.

For reference, that's the eighth-worst playoff odds in baseball and the fourth-worst in the American League.

This is a prediction that even FanGraphs' own Ben Clemens is shocked about heading into the season.

"I don't know what to make of our AL Central projection. Most of it makes sense – no one's amazingly good, the White Sox are the worst team in baseball, and the Twins are better than last year's collapse would suggest. But I don't see Cleveland as the fourth-best team in the division, despite what the model says," wrote Clemens.

"Still, I'm skeptical of the model's view that Cleveland's median outcome is below .500. Between the relatively soft division, the addition of Carlos Santana, and two Top 100 prospects who could debut this year and might provide an offensive jolt, I think there's more upside here than the model suggests."

Do the Guardians have a clear-cut path back to the postseason?

Not at all.

The AL Central has certainly improved, and the Wild Card race should be tighter, with both the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays making clear pushes to get back into the playoffs.

However, this is still largely the same roster that finished with the second-best record in the American League a year ago and proved they could win in different ways.

Sure, the rotation and lineup are questionable, but those unknowns could easily be pleasant surprises, with Luis Ortiz, Chase DeLauter, and Juan Brito all in line to play significant roles in 2025.

The Guardians also still have the best bullpen in baseball, which can help a team win multiple games in a series on their own.

There are never any guarantees in baseball. Perhaps the Guardians won't be playing baseball next October.

However, a 15-game turnaround, as FanGraphs' model suggests, effectively takes them out of the postseason picture well before the end of the regular season. Based on how the roster currently looks and how they finished a year ago, this seems hard to fathom.

This article first appeared on Cleveland Guardians on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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